In theory, the 2024-25 National Hunt season commenced in early May, but for most enthusiasts and bettors, the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham, the heartland of jump racing, this Friday and Saturday marks the first significant milestone on the journey that culminates in the Cotswolds in March and Liverpool in April.

Cheltenham's calendar is sparse, with only nine days scheduled before the Festival meeting on 11 March, making each track day precious for the winter racing faithful. However, the initial steps into this new campaign might not feel as bold and assured as in previous years. Britain's National Hunt racing, despite being at least twice the size of Ireland's in terms of race numbers and prize money, enters the 2024-25 season feeling more like the underdog than ever before.

Willie Mullins's latest achievement—adding the British National Hunt trainers' championship to his 18th Irish title—sealed another disheartening season for British stables. Four Irish trainers—Mullins, Gordon Elliott, Henry de Bromhead, and Gavin Cromwell—finished in the top 20, collectively winning £6.5m in prizes. This scenario, paraphrasing Gary Lineker, suggests that dozens of trainers run their best horses for five months, only for the Irish to always emerge victorious.

Such a sense of inevitability is problematic for events like Cheltenham's Festival, which thrives on uncertainty. Jonathan Mullin, Horse Racing Ireland's director of racing, highlighted this issue earlier this year, noting that the biggest threat to Irish jumps racing is the decline of British jumps racing.

A rebalancing of power in the jumping world is necessary, and reclaiming the trainers' title from Mullins would be a good start. According to betting odds, Dan Skelton is the most likely contender to do so. Skelton, who seemed poised to succeed his former employer, Paul Nicholls, in the spring, saw Mullins snatch the crown with a late surge through Cheltenham, Aintree, and Ayr.

Skelton has been active over the summer, with over 300 runners and £550,000 in prizes already. He is currently favored at 5-4 to remain at the top of the table until the end of the campaign. Skelton is expected to have more runners than his rivals throughout the season, but he cannot match Mullins's depth of quality in his yard.

The early signs for Skelton and other British contenders like Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are not promising. Mullins did not send any jump runners to Britain before the Showcase last year, but this time, his horses have already appeared in unexpected locations, winning at Fontwell, Worcester, Bangor, and Warwick.

Mullins's odds of repeating as champion are 7-4 with one firm and 10-11 elsewhere. He has the top two contenders in the Gold Cup betting and immense strength in every division. To beat him, a collective revival among leading British trainers and their horses is likely required, especially at the spring festivals.

One horse everyone eagerly anticipates is Henderson's unbeaten former champion hurdler, Constitution Hill. After an abortive start to the 2023-24 season due to weather and a virus, Newcastle's Fighting Fifth Hurdle on 30 November is the target for Henderson's star.

Henderson endured a challenging festival meeting in March, but Jonbon emerged with two Grade Ones in April and will be a key player. Nicholls, meanwhile, is aiming for a 15th title, which would tie Martin Pipe's record. Despite losing a major owner, he retained the promising Regent's Stroll.

As these names emerge from their summer quarters, it will be fascinating to see if Mullins can defend his title. Winning it was a monumental achievement; defending it promises to be even tougher.

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