The US presidential election typically features an October 'surprise' that shakes the competing campaigns just before voting day. The 2024 race, however, has already seen three major political shocks by mid-July. The rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, both seasoned politicians, has been marked by unprecedented historical events and intense drama.

On May 30, a handwritten note with the words 'We the jury have a verdict' began the final act of a historic event: the criminal trial of a former president. In a Manhattan courtroom, the jury foreman declared Trump guilty on all 34 counts, making him the first ex-president to be criminally convicted. Trump, who left the court as a felon, attempted to leverage the situation by accusing his opponents of a witch hunt.

For Biden, the critical moment came during a televised debate with Trump on June 27, where his performance sparked widespread concern among Democrats about his fitness for a second term. Since then, his every move has been closely watched, with increasing calls within his party for him to step down.

The most shocking event occurred on July 13 during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, when shots were fired, and Trump was rushed off stage. This incident is likely to shape the remainder of the campaign, though its exact impact on voter sentiment remains uncertain.