A football match definitely took place. This much we can confirm. I have a lanyard, a programme, and a set of cryogenically frozen fingers to attest to that. Other people were here too, I believe. I can vaguely recall noises—disappointed noises, the kind you make when you’ve paid £97 to watch Federico Gatti make back-passes. But the actual memories of the event are already fading, like quick-drying paint, like the last thing you see before going under general anaesthesia. Did Emiliano Martínez do something? Was Alessandro Del Piero on the pitch at some point? It’s all blurring now. Can no longer feel my legs. Can no longer feel anything. Just floating. Orbs through space. Still floating. So nice here. So nice.
Not a memorable night for Aston Villa, Juventus, or the competition as a whole. With 48 extra fixtures, one big floating table, and no real structure or hard edges, games like this were bound to happen. Few matches in this expanded group stage are genuinely must-win, especially for teams that have already accumulated a few points. The goal is merely to survive, endure, and exist in this space for a couple more weeks until we know more.
The result was a kind of test-card football, the sporting equivalent of hold music, exacerbated by the fact that Juventus had the best defensive record in the Big Five leagues this season, and Villa were desperately short on confidence after six games without a win. Villa were determined to play on the counter, while Juventus under Thiago Motta are defined by one characteristic above all: do not, under any circumstances, get countered. So Gatti, Manuel Locatelli, and Pierre Kalulu made neat little triangles in defence, daring Villa to press them, provoking them to commit. Meanwhile, Villa simply refused to commit. There were 19 shots, but only a handful carried any genuine threat. Ollie Watkins had one. Lucas Digne hit the crossbar with a free-kick, but not even an interesting part of the crossbar, just the top edge. Martínez made one superb save from Francisco Conceição at the back post. That, really, is all that needs to be said about this deeply forgettable game.
So, where exactly are Villa heading right now? What is their trajectory? Seven games without a win: is this just a mid-season slump that all non-elite teams go through at some point? Or is something more concerning happening? Has this third-season Unai Emery team finally hit its ceiling?
First, the underlying data. Villa may only be eighth in the Premier League, but in expected goals, they have the fourth-best attack and the sixth-best defence. They outshot Bournemouth at home, Tottenham away, Juventus here, and Crystal Palace twice in league and cup, and won none of those games. The chances are still coming. The fundamentals are still basically OK. In part, Villa’s form stems from a few genuine anomalies—a missed penalty against Crystal Palace, Evanilson’s 96th-minute equaliser for Bournemouth, Tyrone Mings inexplicably picking up the ball against Brugge. Here, Morgan Rogers’s injury-time winner was ruled out for nothing, basically. This stuff is annoying. But it’s not in any way terminal.
But of course, it’s only one part of the story, and as Villa toiled here in entirely familiar ways, we got an insight into exactly why they are finding themselves on the wrong edge of these fine margins. More than ever, this is a team built around the assassin qualities of Watkins: the back four always looking for the quick long ball to release him, the wingers instinctively attuned to his sharp near-post runs and tailoring their own movements accordingly. Then he comes off, Jhon Durán comes on, and though the chaos factor grows, the plan is largely similar. What’s changed? Last season, Douglas Luiz, Moussa Diaby, and Leon Bailey combined for 34 goals in all competitions. Only the slightly wayward Bailey remains. Rogers started brightly but has regressed a little in recent weeks. The result is an ever-sharper reliance on Watkins: 29% of their xG last season, 35% this season.
All of which means that Villa’s fate depends to an ever-increasing degree on what kind of day their No 11 has, and you sense opposition teams are beginning to work that out too. And of course, Watkins is a brilliant striker, capable of bending and breaking teams in multiple ways, playing under a coach who will only improve him. But if Villa are going to snap themselves out of their slump, he’s going to need a little help.
Source link: https://www.theguardian.com
