As the match kicked off at Lansdowne Road, a bustling crowd had already seen the All Blacks' social media post from earlier in the day. The post featured the final two minutes of the game 11 years ago between these teams, played on the same pitch. It was a moment where New Zealand had risen from the brink: a distressing memory for the home team and their fans; another marker on New Zealand’s seemingly invincible record. The final two minutes of this game told a different tale: no need to overcome a deficit; no need to secure a touchline conversion; no need to worry about any close calls. With 11 minutes remaining, they were comfortably ahead by two scores against a team trying hard but achieving little.
What began as a dull, calm day in Dublin had transformed into a wet evening by kick-off, making ball handling on the ground a significant challenge. The primary reason for the ball being on the ground so often was the difficulty in catching under pressure. A slippery ball inevitably leads to more set scrums, which can drain the energy from any game. If the scrum is typically either a powerful weapon you want to deploy at will or a minefield you wish to avoid, initially it was neither: just a waste of valuable time. The aggregate time spent on set and reset scrums and stoppages for obstruction was nearly 20 minutes before New Zealand made their opening statement: sustained pressure from their phase game – aggressive, accurate, and high tempo – forcing the home team to hang on without breaking.
During this period, Mark Tele’a was denied a chance out wide – remarkable in itself – and Damian McKenzie was also hauled down on a promising run from broken play. At that point, Jack Crowley and McKenzie had swapped penalties, and when the latter nudged one to touch in search of more than three points, it ended in a crooked throw. On his next chance, he pointed at the posts and took three, giving New Zealand a 6-3 lead after 30 minutes. This wasn’t much to show for their dominance, which wasn’t particularly pronounced, but Ireland’s lineout was unreliable, gifting McKenzie a third penalty on 38 minutes.
Before he could reflect on that small advantage, Bundee Aki made a clean burst, which ended with a high shot from Jordie Barrett on his soon-to-be centre partner at Leinster, Garry Ringrose. Crowley pulled back three points, and Ireland ran off to the tunnel, grateful to be so close. With Barrett in the bin, the clock was counting for Ireland as well as the offender. On 43 minutes, they had something to show for it when Sam Cane was forced into conceding a five-metre scrum, and around the corner rugby saw Josh van der Flier score out wide. Crowley made it 13-9. If the half-time resolution had been to be more direct, it seemed to be working, and they went very close on the next play off the restart.
The game’s complexion would have changed dramatically had that worked out, but quickly New Zealand settled back into phase play that left Ireland losing most of the collisions but hanging tough enough not to concede any linebreaks. One wondered why McKenzie didn’t look to extend those phases instead of punting for position, for the last thing Ireland wanted was him, or Will Jordan, running at them. Especially given the energy the home team spent on keeping their defensive line intact. And when they had the ball, Ireland couldn’t combine tempo with ball retention. The Kiwis’ confidence seemed to rise with every spillage.
They were helped by a poor call against Finlay Bealham at a scrum, which allowed McKenzie to regain the lead, and on 65 minutes, he tacked on another for 18-13. By the time that was sinking in, the home side were coughing up another piece of possession. With the game easing into the final straight, the Kiwis finally did as expected and held the ball long enough to get over the line. Jordan was under no pressure to touch down with 10 minutes left, and the home team looked stuck for both ideas and technique.
For New Zealand, this gives huge momentum to the rest of the tour and the journey under their next coaching crew. They were favorites for a silver medal here but won so well that Ireland looked lost. The home team’s run of 19 Tests didn’t just end but fell into a hole in the road. They were beaten out the gate on all metrics, getting on the wrong side of referee Nic White the harder they tried to get on terms. This changes the outlook for the Autumn Series, which Ireland had hoped to use as a launching pad for the Six Nations. Houston, we have a problem.
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