Asian markets showed a mixed performance on Monday as investors attempted to recover from the turmoil of the previous week, which was sparked by concerns over a potential US recession. Attention was centered on the upcoming release of crucial inflation and retail sales data. Following a severe downturn driven by a significant shortfall in US job creation, stocks managed to rebound in the subsequent days, concluding Friday on a positive note. This recovery was bolstered by a report indicating fewer unemployment benefit claims than anticipated, alleviating concerns about the contraction of the world's largest economy. Nonetheless, analysts cautioned that although some stability has been restored to trading floors, traders are still anxious and eagerly awaiting the next set of economic indicators. The forthcoming consumer price index and retail sales reports could potentially give the Federal Reserve leeway to reduce interest rates. There is anticipation that the bank will decrease borrowing costs by 25 basis points next month and possibly once more before January, based on a series of data suggesting that prices have been contained. However, opinions among Fed officials regarding the future of rates are varied. Governor Michelle Bowman expressed her belief that inflation could rebound and advised caution against premature rate reductions. In contrast, Boston Fed chief Susan Collins suggested that rate cuts could commence soon if data continued to indicate that prices were being controlled. "The real crisis could arise if we face a double blow: a higher CPI coupled with lower retail sales," cautioned Stephen Innes. "Such a combination would trigger a rush to exit faster than one could shout 'stagflation,'" he noted in his Dark Side Of The Boom newsletter. "Moreover, after the recent scare over job growth, a higher inflation figure could alone inflict significant damage." All three major indices in New York closed positively on Friday. In early Asian trading, markets in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Singapore, and Manila declined slightly, while those in Sydney, Seoul, Taipei, and Wellington experienced gains. Tokyo was closed for a public holiday. The yen weakened following last week's fluctuations, which saw it reach a six-month high against the dollar after the weak US job figures heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts. This occurred concurrently with the Bank of Japan raising its rates for the second time in 17 years and signaling further increases. Last week's statements aimed at reassuring investors that no immediate actions would be taken during market volatility helped to calm some nerves. However, Luca Santos at ACY Securities cautioned that this stability might be fleeting. The broader market sentiment, influenced by expectations of substantial rate cuts, indicates underlying uncertainties. The anticipation of a cumulative 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, followed by another 100 basis points in 2025, reflects an increasing belief that the Federal Reserve may need to adopt a more aggressive stance in easing monetary policy to bolster economic growth.
Text: Lara Palmer
12.08.2024
Investors brace for inflation and retail data as markets recover from US job scare