Call of Duty: Black Ops 6 made its debut on Xbox Game Pass, sparking discussions about its potential impact on sales. The situation is now clearer, though not entirely. Circana analyst Mat Piscatella provided crucial data indicating the effect of Black Ops 6's Game Pass launch in the US. He noted a "subscription spending boost," as consumers opted for Game Pass subscriptions instead of buying the game outright. Prior to this, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella claimed that Black Ops 6's Game Pass debut saw the highest single-day sign-ups for any new Game Pass launch.
Piscatella also mentioned that Microsoft's move to include Black Ops 6 on Game Pass "shifted" the share of full-game sales to PlayStation. While Xbox might have become the most popular Call of Duty platform in a decade, PlayStation still leads in full-game sales (at least in the US, according to Circana). PlayStation platforms accounted for 82% of Black Ops 6's total console full-game dollar sales in October, according to Piscatella. Despite this, Microsoft, the owner of Call of Duty, benefits from every sale, regardless of the platform. An increasing share of PlayStation sales also benefits Sony, as it receives its usual platform cut. Microsoft has committed to releasing Call of Duty on PlayStation platforms for at least the next decade.
Piscatella's data suggests that launching Black Ops 6 on Game Pass did not significantly cannibalize sales, a topic of ongoing debate. While some developers report cannibalization effects for Game Pass releases, others observe different trends. Piscatella concluded that there is no definitive answer yet for Call of Duty. "Who knows, maybe there's a benefit, maybe there's a drawback, maybe it all comes out in the wash. Whatever it is, the data suggest (to me anyways) that it ain't conclusive yet," he said in response to questions about the impact of bringing a new game to Game Pass.
Before this, analyst Michael Pachter estimated that Microsoft could lose up to six million sales by putting Black Ops 6 on Game Pass, as he believed 25% of existing Game Pass subscribers would have bought it anyway. Pachter also predicted that Black Ops 6 could attract up to four million new Game Pass subscribers. Microsoft previously acknowledged that exclusive releases like Starfield, available only on Xbox, could result in millions in lost unit sales. The company made the same prediction for Indiana Jones and the Great Circle, which is set to release on PS5 in 2025, unlike Starfield.
Piscatella also revealed that Black Ops 6's launch did not significantly boost Xbox Series X|S hardware sales. Xbox hardware sales dropped 18% in October 2024, outperforming declines for PS5 (-20%) and Switch (38%). Microsoft's focus has shifted from selling Xbox consoles to expanding the Xbox brand's reach. Despite this, consoles remain vital to Microsoft, which continues to produce them. The economic realities of Game Pass remain unclear, partly because Microsoft does not disclose the terms of its deals with developers and publishers. At a higher level, Microsoft no longer shares Xbox console sales numbers, focusing instead on ambiguous "engagement" metrics that can be presented to Microsoft's advantage.
Black Ops 6 was the best-selling game in the US for October 2024 and ranks as the third best-selling game of 2024 after just a few days on sale.
Source link: https://www.gamespot.com
