Following a memorable weekend of Grade One steeplechasing in both Britain and Ireland, the Cheltenham Gold Cup has a new favorite in Fact To File, and the likelihood of a British-trained winner in jumping’s showcase event in 2025—or even the 2020s—appears increasingly slim. If sheer bravery were the sole criterion for winning a Gold Cup, then both Royale Pagaille and Grey Dawning, who finished first and second in Saturday’s Betfair Chase at Haydock, would be obvious contenders for the festival in March. Their dramatic, slow-motion duel over the final two fences at Haydock was a riveting sight for the packed crowds, providing a much-needed uplift for fans and professionals alike after the disheartening scenes at Cheltenham just six days prior.
However, a Gold Cup victor requires far more than an unyielding spirit. Royale Pagaille has yet to secure a top-three finish in three previous attempts, and although Grey Dawning remains a 16-1 contender for the chasing championship, he still has much to demonstrate. To give credit to Dan Skelton’s seven-year-old, he might have triumphed on Saturday were it not for a minor, albeit understandable, error at the final fence. His next race, likely postponed until late January or early February to allow recovery from Saturday’s exertions, will provide further insight. He already appears to be the top staying chaser in a British stable.
Nonetheless, being the standout in the Championship is akin to being the best in a second-tier league. The John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown on Sunday served as a reminder of the challenges ahead when he competes against Ireland’s elite. Fact To File and Spillane’s Tower overtook Galopin Des Champs, the winner of the last two Gold Cups, at the final hurdle, with Fact To File then displaying impressive resolve to fend off the persistent challenge of the runner-up. Sunday’s race was two-and-a-half miles long, and Galopin Des Champs remains a solid 4-1 second favorite to claim a third Gold Cup in March. However, like Grey Dawning at Haydock, Fact To File was a Grade One-winning novice making his debut in open company and is expected to improve on his Sunday performance.
Ireland’s staying chase division operates at a markedly higher level than its British counterpart, a disparity also evident in the Coral Gold Cup field—formerly the Hennessy—at Newbury on Saturday. For many bettors, this is the most eagerly awaited race in the first half of the jumps season, possibly even the entire five-month buildup to the Cheltenham festival. Sixteen competitors remained in the running for the 68th edition at the five-day stage on Monday, ensuring around seven minutes of intense drama before one of them joins the illustrious names of steeplechasing on the roll of honor.
It has been just eight years since Native River won the 60th and final running of this race as the Hennessy Gold Cup, and he remains the most recent winner to later claim a Cheltenham Gold Cup. Like Bobs Worth, who won both races in the 2012-13 season, he was a highly promising second-season chaser who entered the race with a manageable handicap and let his talent do the rest. However, there is no clear successor in Saturday’s lineup. Colonel Harry, the probable favorite, is a seven-year-old second-season chaser with strong prospects of securing Jamie Snowden a second consecutive victory, but he finished far behind the winner in two Grade One events in the spring.
The era when the victor of Newbury’s big race on Saturday would receive a quote—potentially a short one—for the Gold Cup seems to be over, at least for the foreseeable future. The last Saturday in November will continue to hold significant, almost spiritual importance for many fans, but like the Betfair Chase last weekend, this will be a race to enjoy and appreciate in the moment without excessive concern for its long-term impact.
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