If 2024 taught us anything, it's that climate change is dramatically transforming our planet. We're on track to set a new record for the hottest year. In recent months alone, supercharged hurricanes, unprecedented floods, and drought-driven wildfires have ravaged parts of the United States. It's a critical moment to halt the aggressive measures—such as cutting U.S. carbon emissions and transitioning to greener energy sources—that scientists have consistently advocated to curb global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warned in 2021 that there's no room for denial or delay.
The incoming Trump Administration's decisions on how to address these challenges will significantly influence the trajectory of climate change, not just over the next four years, but for generations. While it's too early to predict the exact policies, President-elect Donald Trump's past statements, actions during his first term, and his nominees provide some clues. Trump has referred to climate change as a 'hoax' and withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement in 2017, dismissing the economic burdens of reducing emissions while ignoring the escalating costs of climate impacts.
Project 2025, a 900-page report by The Heritage Foundation, is seen as a policy blueprint for the new administration, proposing reforms in federal natural resource management. Key climate and environmental issues to watch include the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide and methane, from fossil fuel use. Scientists' best-case scenario is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels by 2100, a goal that feels increasingly distant as major nations lag in emissions reduction.
Achieving net-zero emissions by balancing new emissions with carbon removal from the atmosphere is possible but requires coordinated global action. Progress has been slow, but there are signs of hope, such as the 2023 Dubai climate summit agreement to align global emissions goals with scientific recommendations. President Joe Biden's administration aimed to cut U.S. net greenhouse gas emissions by 50 to 52 percent by 2030, focusing on reducing transportation emissions through increased electric vehicle adoption.
These policies may face reversal under Trump, who has opposed emissions reductions and pledged to boost fossil fuels. His selection for U.S. Department of Energy, Liberty Energy's Chris Wright, has questioned climate science, despite evidence linking climate change to extreme weather events. Wright's potential impact on the ongoing energy transition is uncertain, but his oversight could favor fossil fuels over renewables.
Project 2025 also targets U.S. climate research, suggesting executive orders to overhaul or eliminate programs like the U.S. Global Change Research Program. It proposes downsizing NOAA and privatizing weather forecasting, which could undermine public access to critical weather data. Trump's pick for Commerce Department, Howard Lutnick, supports cutting federal agency budgets, including the Department of the Interior.
The U.S. Forest Service's approach to wildfire management is also at risk, with Project 2025 advocating for reduced use of prescribed burning. This could undermine efforts to reduce flammable vegetation and manage wildfires more effectively. Additionally, Trump's potential repeal of the WOTUS rule could jeopardize water quality, especially in ephemeral waters crucial for downstream communities.
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