Residents fishing along a swollen river in Aliaga, Nueva Ecija, on November 19, 2024, used battery-operated hooks and improvised inflatable buoys made from car tire tubes. This scene unfolded just days after Super Typhoon Man-yi struck the area. Photo: AFP file
Climate change is intensifying the Philippines' vulnerability to tropical storms, with rising temperatures nearly doubling the risk of deadly typhoons, according to a report released on Thursday by scientists. The formation of four typhoons around the Philippines last month was made 70% more likely due to global temperature rises of 1.3 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit), said researchers from the World Weather Attribution group.
While scientists are cautious about attributing individual weather events to climate change, there is a consensus that warmer oceans are intensifying rainfall and wind speeds worldwide. "Climate change made the conditions that formed and fueled the typhoons nearly twice as likely," the group stated. In October and November, an unprecedented sequence of six tropical cyclones hit the country, resulting in the evacuation of hundreds of thousands of people and over 170 deaths. This raised concerns that higher sea surface temperatures were turbocharging storm activity.
"The storms were more likely to develop more strongly and reach the Philippines at a higher intensity than they otherwise would have," explained Ben Clarke, a weather researcher at Imperial College London and one of the report's authors. He added that if temperatures rise to 2.6 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, the same storm conditions would be 40% more likely compared to current levels.
An analysis by U.S. weather researchers Climate Central last month revealed that hurricanes had intensified significantly due to record-breaking ocean warming, with wind speeds increasing by 18 miles per hour (29 kph). Scientists believe that warmer ocean temperatures are intensifying tropical storms by accelerating the rate of evaporation. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has stated with "high confidence" that global warming will make storms more intense.
While it remains uncertain whether rising temperatures will extend the typhoon season or increase the frequency of tropical storms, climate activists are expressing concern. "We used to have what we called a hazard calendar - now it is just basically the whole year around," said Afrhill Rances, the Philippines' representative with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies.
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