England's team sheets are starting to look like Mastermind questions. They've begun, but can they complete the task? Numerous close games have been lost in the final moments, making the bench the first place to observe a coach's thought process and how he might approach the next match.
Steve Borthwick had to make changes after Saturday's near-miss against New Zealand. Apart from swapping the jersey numbers of his two centers, the only adjustments are among the replacements. The 6-2 bench split has been replaced with a more conventional 5-3 setup, including Luke Cowan-Dickie and Ollie Sleightholme. Cowan-Dickie, fit again and eager to revive his international career after missing last year's World Cup, is there to enhance England's physicality and scrum effectiveness in the latter stages of Saturday's Autumn Nations Series game against Australia. This was an area that hurt England in the final quarter against the All Blacks, and Borthwick needs as much resilience as possible in his 23-man squad.
Sleightholme performed well off the bench against New Zealand in Auckland in July and definitely has the speed to trouble exhausted opponents. His presence should remind England of the need to keep playing rather than just defending if they lead in crucial phases of matches. The focus is not so much on the substitutions but on their rationale and timing. Taking off Marcus Smith when leading by eight points was Saturday's most glaring example. The question is whether Borthwick makes such decisions in advance or relies on the match situation and intuition. He insists it's the latter.
The definitive proof will be seen this week. The smartest bet seems to be Smith ending up at full-back with Sleightholme on one wing and possibly Tommy Freeman moving into midfield. There has been talk about the attacking implications of Henry Slade and Ollie Lawrence's positional swap, but given they often switch roles, it's hardly a radical change. More critical is how England collectively improve their management of the later stages of games. Borthwick correctly identified the root cause of their failure to secure victory against New Zealand as the retreating late scrum that failed to provide George Ford with the platform for his last-gasp drop-goal attempt.
There's also the matter of what Sir Clive Woodward used to call 'TCUP'—Thinking Correctly Under Pressure. This includes avoiding small but costly penalties that can alter the flow of a close game. Discipline is a significant factor, as Borthwick noted. England is also wary of Australia being tougher than expected. Borthwick highlighted Australia's strength in the pack, their high ranking in stealing opposition lineout balls, and winning scrum penalties.
If England gets pushed around their own pitch and the penalty count rises, they could be in trouble regardless of who finishes the game at 10. Borthwick praised Ford for handling disappointment well but doesn't want to repeat that next week. England's current challenge—losing close games—urgently needs addressing.
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