Since England and Eddie Jones last faced off in the sweltering heat of Tokyo at the end of June, a lot has transpired. England has not secured another Test match victory in the 155 days that followed, and the morale of the red rose has suffered a series of setbacks. Five consecutive losses threaten to erode confidence and momentum among both players and fans. Interestingly, Japan has also experienced a dry spell since conceding 52 points to England. Italy and Fiji have both scored over 40 points against them, a reshuffled France side managed 52 points, and New Zealand scored 64 in Yokohama. Last week’s 36-20 win over Uruguay provided some relief, but Jones’s return as Japanese head coach is proving to be a gradual process.
Perhaps this reinforces what Steve Borthwick continually asserts: that international rugby is about incremental progress and fine margins rather than steep graphs and immediate giant strides. Or is this merely the standard script coaches recite like the Lord’s Prayer when they’re losing? Consider how Joe Schmidt is transforming the once-troubled Wallaby team he inherited from Jones less than 12 months ago. This makes the final international match of England’s otherwise barren November particularly intriguing psychologically. A substantial win for Borthwick’s team won’t significantly alter public perceptions. A close margin, however, will be seen as further evidence of English fragility rather than Japanese improvement. In essence, the lasting damage of this autumn has already been inflicted.
This doesn’t mean England has nothing left to play for. Quite the contrary. By not rotating his squad—it would have been instructive to see if players like Ted Hill, Cadan Murley, Alex Lozowski, Luke Northmore, or Trevor Davidson could have made an impact—Borthwick has called upon familiar faces to correct some wrongs in the name of continuity. If the home team displays more consistent vigor, especially in the final quarter, this match could rejuvenate a few careers and potentially the entire Borthwick regime. It would be particularly pleasing to hear TV commentators—and TNT, for those who have been watching, has been doing a commendable job—mention one specific word more frequently. While Borthwick might settle for a three-letter word starting with W, there has been a frequent omission under his leadership, and, with apologies to Tammy Wynette, it is spelled O-F-F-L-O-A-D.
In their past five defeats against New Zealand (three times), Australia, and South Africa, the opposition collectively offloaded the ball 50 times. England’s comparative tally is a meager 20. Other areas, from defense to set-piece dominance, also need improvement, but the ability to slightly intensify an opposing defense and shift the point of attack at the last moment is an increasingly crucial skill for top teams. Australia’s last-gasp winning try a fortnight ago was a prime example, and even the joy with which Len Ikitau executed his final backdoor offload to Max Jorgensen was instructive. Test rugby cannot always be a fun factory, but players, particularly backs, who are enjoying and expressing themselves tend to play better. Marcus Smith’s free-spirited approach is a perfect case study.
There also seems to be truth in the argument that England’s rush defense works better against average teams than against superior opponents with the dexterity, pace, awareness, and skill to navigate around it more frequently. The game, as Borthwick noted on Friday, is getting faster and is also rewarding a more balanced kicking strategy. Statistically, England is averaging just four passes for every kick, the lowest ratio in the Autumn Nations Series. They are also averaging the most kicks per game with 29. In terms of results, however, none of this has yielded significant fruit. The figures are not great on line breaks either, with England’s opponents averaging more than nine per game. Worse, missed tackles are costing Borthwick’s side a higher ratio of tries than other teams, suggesting their scramble defense also needs improvement. In many ways, England’s primary challenge against Japan is not how many points they score but how few they concede.
It’s more complex than just missing a couple of tackles. In each of their five defeats, England has held the lead in the final quarter and let it slip every time. In four of those games, the exception being the high-scoring defeat by Australia, England failed to score a point in the last 20 minutes. Is this a mental issue or more fitness-related? The evidence is not entirely conclusive. While Borthwick has suggested his squad was not fit enough at the start of the autumn, Ellis Genge told the Guardian less than a month ago that he was reaching new levels in the gym. Japan, meanwhile, will miss their suspended lock Warner Dearns and have only seven survivors from the side who last faced England. The contest will also have a markedly different feel, played in the 30C heat of Tokyo just over five months ago. Their “go faster” style of rugby, known as Chosoku, remains an ambition, and they can certainly offload when the mood strikes them. The wing Jone Naikabula, who scored an excellent early try against the All Blacks in Yokohama, is one to watch, but the golden generation who defeated South Africa in the 2015 World Cup pool stages has moved on.
So what will Borthwick and Jones be thinking when they shake hands? The old master-and-apprentice scenario has been replaced by more basic instincts. Borthwick wants a win; Jones, who has been unwell this week, will not want his face on the big screen unless Japan is causing their hosts some problems. While the Aussie ninja warrior would love to make his former employers’ autumn even more uncomfortable, it can only be hoped that England fans show him suitable courtesy and respect. A competitive spectacle would also remind the Rugby Football Union’s executives that sacking one conductor does not necessarily transform an entire orchestra. Are England in better shape than they were just prior to Jones’s removal? Or, in terms of on-field improvement, has there been no real discernible change? For those at the sharp end, this fixture will feel anything but an afterthought.
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