The Champions League roared back into action last week, and now it's the Europa League's turn to take the spotlight. Europe's secondary club competition is set to feature a packed schedule of opening fixtures on Wednesday and Thursday. However, this isn't your typical Europa League. The tournament has expanded from 32 to 36 teams, and the format has undergone significant changes, mirroring the new-look Champions League. The previous group stage, which consisted of four teams in eight groups, has been replaced by a league phase where all clubs will play eight matches—two more than before—and are ranked in a single 36-team table.
Another major change is that the 36 teams participating in the first matchday are the only clubs that will compete in the 2024-25 edition. This means there's no safety net for Champions League sides, so Atalanta won't be able to defend their title. Additionally, there's no Conference League to fall back on for those who don't reach the knockouts. Some believe these changes help maintain the integrity of the Europa League and Conference League. Finishing in the top eight guarantees immediate qualification for the last 16, while teams ranked ninth to 24th will enter the playoff round. The losers of those playoffs will be eliminated from European competition for the rest of the season.
While the absence of teams dropping down from the Champions League might reduce the appeal of the Europa League knockouts for some, it's important to note that several big clubs are involved. Manchester United and Tottenham stand out, with Ajax, Athletic Club, and Real Sociedad also making their presence felt. Serie A is represented by bitter rivals Roma and Lazio, while Eintracht Frankfurt and Hoffenheim represent the Bundesliga. Lyon and Nice qualified from Ligue 1.
But who will lift the trophy at San Mamés next year? The Opta supercomputer has simulated the 2024-25 competition 10,000 times to provide pre-tournament percentages. Porto (17.8%) are the favorites, followed by Athletic Club of Bilbao (10.9%). Slavia Prague (9.6%) is ranked third, with Tottenham (8.6%) and Roma (8.2%) also considered strong contenders. Manchester United (7.1%) is surprisingly rated sixth, while Lazio (6.1%), Fenerbahce (3.1%), Real Sociedad (3.6%), Frankfurt (3.6%), and Nice (3.1%) have at least a 3% chance of winning.
