French Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivered a speech at the Texelis company, a manufacturer of axles for heavy-duty vehicles, during his visit to Limoges, central France, on November 29, 2024. – AFP file

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier is facing the most significant threat yet of being ousted by a hostile National Assembly as his government prepares to present a social security financing plan on Monday, which has already drawn fierce opposition. Barnier, a conservative appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in September following an inconclusive general election, lacks a majority in parliament and constantly lives under the threat of a no-confidence vote that could force him and his team to resign if successful.

The key figure in any such vote is Marine Le Pen, the parliamentary leader of the far-right National Rally, which has expressed opposition to several aspects of the government's 2025 budget plan, including the social security financing project to be debated in the National Assembly. These include proposed cuts in employer social contributions, a partial end to inflation-indexing of pensions, and a less generous prescription drug reimbursement policy.

If Barnier fails to secure a parliamentary majority in favor of these measures, he is expected to use executive powers to adopt them without a vote, a procedure known as '49.3' after the constitutional article detailing the prerogative. However, this move would trigger a vote of no-confidence, which he could only survive if Le Pen's party abstains, as Barnier has little hope of finding support from the left.

A no-confidence motion could be introduced as early as Wednesday. If the government falls due to Article 49.3, it would mark the first successful no-confidence vote since Georges Pompidou's government was defeated in 1962, during Charles de Gaulle's presidency.

Le Pen responded coldly on Sunday after Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin stated that the government did not plan any further changes to the social security budget plan. 'We have taken note,' she told AFP, describing the stance as 'extremely closed-minded and partisan behavior.' In an interview with the Sunday edition of La Tribune, she demanded that Barnier engage in further 'discussion' about her party's wishes. 'All Mr. Barnier has to do is accept to negotiate,' she said. Otherwise, she warned, 'the decision for a no-confidence vote will be his.' Her party is the largest in the 577-seat National Assembly, with over 140 deputies.

On Thursday, Barnier had already scrapped a previously planned increase in an electricity tax, in a concession to critics. Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin highlighted the work done on the budgetary proposals in a parliamentary commission ahead of Monday's debate, stating that the current proposal was already the result of compromise between National Assembly deputies and members of the French upper house, the Senate. 'To reject this text is to reject a democratic agreement,' he said.

The right-wing-majority Senate partially approved the government's 2025 budget on Sunday, giving a green light to its revenue projections, in a vote boycotted by the left. The government can still modify its draft law until the last minute, and National Assembly speaker Yael Braun-Pivet urged Barnier to do so on Sunday. 'From the start, I have called on the government to negotiate with the various political groups in the National Assembly,' she told broadcaster Radio J.

Barnier's office had no comment on whether such discussions were indeed taking place but stated that the prime minister 'remains open to dialogue, as he has been from the start.' The Socialist party, part of the left-wing opposition, informed Barnier that it would vote against him if he deployed Article 49.3, stating that it would be left with 'no other choice.'

Saint-Martin warned that the fall of the government would raise the risk premium on French government debt, which has already reached rare heights due to the country's shaky financial situation. France narrowly avoided a debt downgrade by S&P last week, with the ratings agency stating that 'despite ongoing political uncertainty, we expect France to comply -- with a delay -- with the EU fiscal framework and to gradually consolidate public finances.'

Barnier has pledged to improve France's fiscal position by 60 billion euros ($64 billion) in 2025, aiming to reduce the public-sector deficit to five percent of gross domestic product, down from 6.1 percent this year.

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