The GCC region is projected to experience economic growth rebounding to 2.8% in 2024 and 4.7% in 2025, primarily driven by significant GDP expansions in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. This growth is supported by an expected increase in oil production in the latter half of 2024 and a global economic recovery, as stated by the World Bank. The improving regional outlook is not solely reliant on the oil sector's recovery; it also reflects the strong growth in the non-oil sectors, which are anticipated to maintain a robust pace in the medium term, according to the World Bank's Spring 2024 Gulf Economic Update. The World Bank emphasized the GCC's commitment to economic diversification, highlighting their strategic focus on resilience and sustainable development amidst global economic volatility. Despite diversification efforts, hydrocarbon revenues will continue to significantly influence the region's fiscal and external balances in the medium term. The World Bank forecasts Saudi Arabia's real GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2024 and 5.9% in 2025, primarily due to strong non-oil private sector activities. The UAE's real GDP is expected to accelerate to 3.9% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025. In the UAE, oil output is projected to grow by 5.8% in 2024, while non-oil sectors are expected to expand by 3.2%, supported by sectors like tourism, real estate, construction, transportation, and manufacturing. The UAE has continued its strategic spending, supporting development initiatives and committing to sustainable, green, and digital growth. The country maintained a strong current account surplus of 9.1% of GDP, boosted by increasing non-oil exports, new investments, and trade agreements with major Asian and African markets. The World Bank report noted the robust financial reserves in most GCC countries in 2023, with significant growth in the UAE. The substantial improvement in external balances, driven by the oil and gas sector and non-oil exports, has kept financial reserves at comfortable levels. The UAE is actively implementing structural reforms and strategic investments to diversify its economy and enhance industrial capabilities, including a $10 billion investment in Abu Dhabi's tourism infrastructure, Adnoc Gas's $13 billion global and local gas expansion plan over the next five years, and a $10.9 billion public-private partnership portfolio in Dubai. The UAE has also seen a recovery in employment to pre-pandemic levels, with a new budget of $1.74 billion aimed at integrating 36,000 citizens into the private sector by 2024.
Text: Lara Palmer
11.06.2024
Robust GDP Expansion in UAE and Saudi Arabia Driven by Oil Production Hike and Non-Oil Sector Growth