The incidence of cervical cancer has been on the decline since the introduction of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine in 2006. A recent study marks the first time a significant drop in cervical cancer deaths among the initial group of women eligible for the vaccine in the United States has been observed. “We hypothesized that after nearly 16 years, we might begin to see the initial effects of HPV vaccination on cervical cancer deaths,” explains Ashish Deshmukh, an epidemiologist at the Medical University of South Carolina. “And that’s precisely what we found.”

Deshmukh cautions that while the study, published in JAMA on November 27, shows a decline in deaths, it cannot definitively attribute this reduction to the vaccine. This is due to the uncertainty regarding whether the women in the study cohort were actually vaccinated. The HPV vaccine is known to prevent up to six HPV-related cancers, including cervical, vaginal, vulvar, penile, oropharyngeal, and anal cancers.

Deshmukh’s team focused on cervical cancer mortality data from 1992 to 2021 for women under the age of 25. By grouping the data into three-year intervals, they noted a gradual decline of nearly 4 percent per period until 2013–2015, with about 0.02 deaths per 100,000 people. This steady decrease could be attributed to enhanced preventive measures and screening methods for cervical cancer.

However, over the subsequent six years, the team observed a dramatic 60 percent reduction in mortality. By the 2019–2021 period, the rate had plummeted to approximately 0.007 deaths per 100,000 people. Health economist Emily Burger of the University of Oslo notes, “They’re witnessing this sharp drop in mortality at the time we’d expect due to vaccination. This study strongly supports the idea that vaccines can prevent mortality and death.”

This conclusion is reinforced by another study in the Journal of the National Cancer Institute, which found no cervical cancer cases among women who received the HPV vaccine at age 12 or 13. Deshmukh emphasizes that the mortality drop is significant among young women, a group where cervical cancer is still rare. “The impact we’re seeing is a preview of what we might observe in the next 20 to 30 years if we continue to boost vaccination rates,” he says.

However, HPV vaccination rates in the U.S. have stagnated since the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, among adolescents aged 13 to 17 with at least one dose, rates were nearly 77 percent in 2022 and 76 percent in 2023. The Department of Health and Human Services aims to achieve an 80 percent HPV vaccination rate by 2030. “We haven’t met our vaccination goal in the U.S.,” Deshmukh notes. “We need to improve vaccination rates significantly.”

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