On Monday, the Indian rupee exhibited a slight strengthening, mirroring the upward trend of its Asian counterparts, which were bolstered by a drop in US bond yields following new economic data that raised expectations for potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year.
As of 10.15am IST, the rupee stood at 83.44 against the US dollar, a marginal improvement from its previous close at 83.4850. US Treasury yields and the dollar both fell after Friday's data revealed a rise in the US unemployment rate to 4.1 percent and the slowest annual wage growth in three years, indicating a weakening in the labor market.
This data comes amid a series of indicators suggesting a cooling US economy, which has increased the likelihood of a September rate cut by the Fed to nearly 76 percent, up from about 64 percent a week earlier, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
Asian currencies experienced a respite due to widespread US dollar weakness, but the risk for these currencies remains tilted towards depreciation, especially with the Fed adopting a patient approach, according to Lloyd Chan, senior currency analyst at MUFG Bank.
Last week, Asian currencies faced pressure, with the Japanese yen hitting a 38-year low and the offshore Chinese yuan reaching its weakest level since November. Despite recent US economic data showing signs of weakness, Fed policymakers have generally maintained a wait-and-see attitude regarding future interest rate adjustments.
On the day, most Asian currencies saw gains, while the dollar index stood at 104.9 after a 0.2 percent decline on Friday. Traders anticipate that the rupee will likely maintain a sideways movement between 83.40 and 83.55.
