The Trump campaign later stated that he was "doing well" and seemed to have sustained no significant injuries apart from a wound on his upper right ear. Here are the reactions from investors and analysts following the shooting.
TINA FORDHAM, GEOPOLITICAL STRATEGIST AND FOUNDER, FORDHAM GLOBAL FORESIGHT, LONDON: "The shooting adds another layer of complexity to the election scenario for Democrats, who are already split over Biden's prospects as a candidate." "US political violence is regrettably a characteristic rather than an anomaly... The pressing question now is how a nation, where a substantial portion of citizens perceive civil war as increasingly probable, will react." "We anticipate no immediate impact on financial markets. If anything, the short-term effect might be to reinforce the prevailing market consensus of a Trump win." "This marks a serious development in a nation that is profoundly polarized, where many Americans doubt the health or functionality of their democracy." "This kind of event is the most detrimental that can occur in such an environment, and I am deeply concerned that it foreshadows further political violence and social instability. This is the sort of scenario historically seen in many countries facing instability, often with unfavorable outcomes." "Democracy is not currently in crisis. This year has seen numerous elections, including in India, the world's most populous country, and across the European Union, the largest common market. We've observed peaceful transitions in France, the United Kingdom, Mexico, and more. These countries have conducted free and fair elections. This is not the current situation in the United States, which stands as the only major democracy experiencing a significant crisis."
KHOON GOH, HEAD OF ASIA RESEARCH, ANZ, SINGAPORE: "The likelihood of Trump's victory has risen to 70% in betting markets following the assassination attempt. It's uncertain how markets will react." The bitcoin surge could reflect concerns about increased civil unrest. We may see some risk-averse moves at market opening, but these should dissipate quickly."
NICK TWIDALE, CHIEF MARKET ANALYST, ATFX GLOBAL, SYDNEY: "I believe it likely enhances his chances, and we might see some safe-haven investments in the morning."
RONG REN GOH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS, SINGAPORE: "The shooting is expected to strengthen Trump's support and further boost the positive momentum he gained from the recent presidential debates." The market's response to a Trump presidency typically involves a stronger US dollar and a steeper US Treasuries curve. We could see some of this next week if his election prospects are deemed to have improved further due to this incident."
NICK FERRES, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, VANTAGE POINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE: "From what I recall, Reagan's poll numbers jumped 22 points after his assassination attempt. The election could turn into a landslide. This likely decreases uncertainty." Trump has consistently been more 'pro-market' - the main concern moving forward is whether fiscal policy remains excessively loose and the potential implications for inflation and future interest rates."
HEMANT MISHR, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, S CUBE CAPITAL, SINGAPORE: "I believe this will cause a shock reaction in a market already anxious about the US election." I foresee the Trump trade gaining momentum until November unless the Democrats present a truly viable alternative." This significantly boosts his chances and will likely result in a steeper US yield curve in the coming months. I would favor high growth, high inflation trades - financials and energy sectors should perform well, while Asian currencies may suffer."
