Israel is poised to greenlight a US-brokered ceasefire plan with Hezbollah, an Iran-backed group, on Tuesday, according to a high-ranking Israeli official. This move could signal the end of a conflict that has claimed thousands of lives since it was sparked by the Gaza crisis 14 months ago. Israel’s security cabinet is anticipated to convene later on Tuesday to review and likely approve the ceasefire proposal during a meeting led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This approval would set the stage for a ceasefire declaration by US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, as reported by four senior Lebanese sources to Reuters on Monday.
In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby stated on Monday, ‘We’re close’ but ‘nothing is done until everything is done.’ The French presidency also noted significant progress in ceasefire discussions. The agreement has already gained approval in Beirut, where Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker informed Reuters on Monday that there were no substantial obstacles remaining to implement the ceasefire—unless Netanyahu changes his mind. Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on reports that Israel and Lebanon had agreed on the ceasefire terms.
Hezbollah, designated as a terrorist organization by Washington, has endorsed its ally, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, to negotiate. The plan mandates Israeli troops to withdraw from southern Lebanon and for Lebanese army troops to deploy in the border region—a Hezbollah stronghold—within 60 days, according to Elias Bou Saab, Lebanon’s deputy parliament speaker, and a second Israeli official.
Despite signs of a breakthrough, military escalation continues, with Israeli airstrikes further demolishing Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut on Monday. The widespread destruction in Lebanon highlights the substantial reconstruction costs facing the cash-strapped nation, with over 1 million people displaced. In Israel, a ceasefire would enable 60,000 people to return to their homes in the north, which they evacuated as Hezbollah began firing rockets in support of its Palestinian ally Hamas following the group’s October 7, 2023, assault.
Since launching its offensive against Hezbollah in September, Israel has dealt the group significant blows, including the killing of its leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, and other top commanders. Despite this, Hezbollah has continued to fire rockets into Israel, launching approximately 250 rockets on Sunday. Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Danny Danon, stated on Monday that Israel would retain the capability to strike southern Lebanon under any agreement.
Lebanon has previously opposed granting Israel such rights, and Lebanese officials have stated that such language is not included in the draft proposal. Israel would only be able to strike against ‘imminent threats,’ according to the second Israeli official. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller noted on Monday that gaps between the two parties have significantly narrowed but that there are still steps needed to reach an agreement. ‘Oftentimes the very last stages of an agreement are the most difficult because the hardest issues are left to the end,’ he said. ‘We are pushing as hard as we can.’
In Beirut, Bou Saab told Reuters on Monday that there were ‘no serious obstacles’ left to start implementing a US-proposed ceasefire with Israel ‘unless Netanyahu changes his mind.’ Over the past year, more than 3,750 people have been killed and over one million have been forced from their homes, according to Lebanon’s health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and combatants in its figures. Hezbollah strikes have killed 45 civilians in northern Israel and the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. At least 73 Israeli soldiers have been killed in northern Israel, the Golan Heights, and in combat in southern Lebanon, according to Israeli authorities.
Biden’s administration, which concludes its term in January, has emphasized diplomacy to end the Lebanon conflict, even as all negotiations to halt the parallel war in Gaza remain frozen. US Middle East envoy Brett McGurk will be in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday to discuss using a potential Lebanon ceasefire as a catalyst for a deal ending hostilities in Gaza, according to the White House. Diplomatic efforts over Lebanon have centered on restoring a ceasefire based on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the last major war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. It requires Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters approximately 20 miles from the Israeli border, behind the Litani River, and for the regular Lebanese army to enter the frontier region. Israel has long argued that 1701 was never properly implemented, citing the presence of Hezbollah fighters and weapons at the border. Lebanon has also accused Israel of violating the agreement, noting regular violations of Lebanese airspace by Israeli warplanes.
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