Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris delivered remarks at Howard University in Washington on Wednesday, conceding the 2024 US presidential election to President-elect Donald Trump. REUTERS
Economy, immigration, and incumbency: As the dust begins to settle on a fierce US election campaign, experts point to key factors that contributed to Kamala Harris's failure to prevent Donald Trump from reclaiming the White House. Democratic strategist James Carville famously attributed Bill Clinton's 1992 victory to the phrase "The economy, stupid!" Thirty years on, this maxim remains relevant, with Vice-President Harris unable to sway American voters affected by a surge in inflation during her tenure with Joe Biden.
The Democrats' significant loss mirrors similar setbacks for incumbent parties worldwide amid a wave of inflation post-pandemic. Despite recent improvements in US economic data, surveys consistently revealed widespread negative sentiment among voters, and Trump relentlessly criticized Harris on the campaign trail for rising grocery and gas prices. "People still perceive inflation as a problem because they consider price levels, not year-over-year rates as economists do," explained Bernard Yaros of Oxford Economics. "It may frustrate people that essentials are consuming a larger portion of their household budgets," he told AFP.
As in his 2016 victory, immigration was "clearly a factor" in Trump's 2024 win, according to University of Richmond School of Law professor Carl Tobias. Trump pledged a massive deportation operation to remove millions of immigrants who arrived under the Biden-Harris administration. Illegal border crossings had dropped significantly after Biden issued a strict executive order, but this followed record highs that Trump and other Republicans decried as an "invasion." Harris, who handled Central American immigration issues, argued that Trump used his influence to kill a bipartisan border bill for political gain. Republicans, however, deemed the bill insufficient and too late. Ultimately, voters sided with the Trump camp.
Preliminary exit polls indicated that Harris secured around 40 percent of white voters, over 80 percent of Black voters, and about half of both Hispanics and Asians. Although Trump did not win a majority among non-white groups, his support among African Americans increased slightly, and among Hispanics, it jumped significantly—a concerning trend for Democrats. "We've observed a steady shift towards Trump among Mexican American males, evangelicals, non-college-educated, working-class individuals," noted University of Southern California, Annenberg, professor Roberto Suro. This trend was also evident "geographically along the border and in areas directly affected by new migration."
Contrary to expectations, Trump performed better than in 2020 with women—despite abortion rights being a key campaign issue—and among youth. Biden, who would have been 82 on Inauguration Day, raised concerns among Democrats when he announced his re-election bid. No major competitor challenged him for the party nomination, and any mention of his possible mental or physical decline was met with denial by the White House. However, a disastrous debate against Trump in June sparked a crisis, leading to intense party pressure that ultimately forced Biden to step aside. Harris quickly took the reins but had only three months to revive a lagging campaign.
"Much of this Democratic disaster can be attributed to Joe Biden. He should never have run for re-election in his 80s, leaving Harris to manage a truncated campaign that proved insufficient," said Larry Sabato, a political scientist at the University of Virginia. Harris struggled to distance herself from Biden and his unpopularity. On October 8, she found herself cornered on ABC's "The View" when asked what she would have done differently than Biden. After a pause, she replied, "There is not a thing that comes to mind." This exchange proved disastrous, according to former Barack Obama adviser David Axelrod, who commented on CNN. Trump, who believed a run against Biden would have been easier, seized the opportunity, playing the clip at rallies and featuring it in numerous television ads.
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