New polls released on Saturday indicate that Kamala Harris has surpassed Donald Trump in three pivotal battleground states, seemingly diminishing the edge the ex-president held in these regions over the past year. The surveys, conducted among likely voters by The New York Times and Siena College, reveal Harris leading Trump with a 50 percent to 46 percent margin in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. These Midwestern states are crucial under the US electoral college system, being pivotal for either party's victory.
This shift in polling data marks a change from the previous year's surveys, which consistently showed Trump either level with or slightly ahead of Democratic President Joe Biden, who withdrew from the race last month and endorsed Harris. With nearly three months remaining until the November 5 election, much can still evolve. The polls indicate that voters still favor Trump on economic and immigration issues, but Harris holds a significant 24-point lead on the topic of abortion. Democrats are encouraged by the growing enthusiasm surrounding Harris's campaign, particularly after Biden, aged 81, stepped down.
Harris's choice of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate seems to have galvanized Democrats further. This pairing has interrupted a surge in Trump's support, which followed the July 13 assassination attempt and the Republicans' successful national convention. According to the Times/Siena polls, Harris has seen a 10-point increase in favorability among registered voters in Pennsylvania over the past month. Voters perceive her as more intelligent and better suited temperamentally for governance than Trump. Despite various attacks by Trump, J.D. Vance, and other Republicans aimed at undermining Harris, including questioning her racial identity, the new polls show strong Democratic backing for the more dynamic Harris, who, along with Walz, has been vigorously campaigning in swing states.
Democratic voter satisfaction with their candidate choice has risen by 27 points in the three Midwestern states since May, according to the polls. This is a reversal from three months ago when Republicans expressed higher satisfaction. The surveys were carried out between August 5 and 9, with a minimum of 600 voters polled in each state.
