Seven key battleground states – Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – are poised to determine the outcome of Tuesday's US presidential election between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump. Here are 11 counties within these states to keep an eye on, with estimated vote counts provided by Edison Research at 12am ET (9am UAE time on Wednesday). Early results, based on partial returns, may not accurately predict the final vote tallies in these counties.
Maricopa County, Arizona, home to Phoenix, is crucial for winning the Southwestern state, as it accounts for approximately 60% of the statewide vote. In the 2020 election, Democratic President Joe Biden won this county by 2.2 percentage points, while Trump secured a nearly 3-point victory in 2016. With estimates that 50% of the ballots have been counted, former President Trump has won 49% of the votes tallied so far, and Harris has won 51%.
Cobb County, Georgia, located in Atlanta's northern suburbs, is a diverse and populous area that Democrats hope to leverage for a significant vote gain. Biden achieved this in 2020 by winning the county by about 14 percentage points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried Cobb County by just 2 points but lost the state to Trump. With an estimated 95% of the ballots counted, Harris is leading with 57% and Trump with 42%.
Baldwin County, Georgia, in central Georgia, is smaller than Cobb but serves as an indicator of Black voter turnout, with about 40% of its voters being Black. Biden's 2020 margin here was narrower than Clinton's in 2016. With nearly all ballots counted, Trump has won 51% of the votes and Harris 49%.
Washtenaw County, Michigan, home to the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, saw Biden take 73% of the vote in 2020. The university is a focal point for Democratic efforts to mobilize young voters. Harris' performance may be influenced by public sentiment regarding the administration's policies in the Middle East. With estimates of 70% of the ballots counted, Harris has won 65% of the votes tallied so far, compared to 32% for Trump.
Wake County, North Carolina, which includes the state capital Raleigh, has boosted statewide Democratic turnout in recent elections. In 2020, Biden won 65% of the vote there, though it wasn't enough to secure the state for him. With nearly all ballots counted, Harris has won 62% of the votes tallied so far, and Trump has won 36%.
Erie County, Pennsylvania, in northwestern Pennsylvania, has voted for the winner in the last four elections, including Biden in 2020, who won the county by a single percentage point. In 2016, Trump won the county by 2 points. With estimates that 75% of the ballots have been counted, Harris has won 51% of the votes tallied so far, and Trump has won 48%.
Bucks County, Pennsylvania, north of Philadelphia, is another highly competitive county due to its large working-class population. Trump has made significant inroads with this demographic during his eight years on the national political stage. In 2020, Biden won this county by 4 percentage points, securing the state for the Democrats. With estimates that 55% of the ballots have been counted, Harris has won 50% of the votes tallied so far, and Trump has won 49%.
Cumberland County, Pennsylvania, in the suburbs of Harrisburg, the state capital, has supported Trump in the last two elections. However, Democrats could reduce these gains by appealing to the area's growing white-collar workforce. In 2020, Trump won this county by 11 points. With nearly all ballots counted, Trump has won 54% of the votes tallied so far, and Harris has won 45%.
Waukesha County, Wisconsin, in the populous western suburbs of Milwaukee, has been a stronghold for Trump in the past two campaigns, winning by more than 20 percentage points each time. To win back the state after Biden carried it in 2020, Trump will need similar support levels in this county. With an estimated 95% of the ballots counted, Trump has won 59% of the votes, and Harris has won 40%.
Wayne County, Michigan, home to Detroit's 1.7 million residents, is about 40% Black. In 2020, Biden won here with more than 68% of the vote, helping him clinch the Midwestern state. Polls in Wayne County closed at 8pm ET (5am UAE time on Wednesday), and Edison Research has not yet reported any votes.
Washoe County, Nevada, in the northwestern corner around Reno, is less racially diverse than the Las Vegas area but has been trending more Democratic in recent elections. Biden won this county by more than 4 percentage points in 2020. Polls in Washoe County closed at 7pm PT (7am UAE time on Wednesday), and Edison Research has not yet reported any votes.
The share of each county's vote that has been counted so far is based on estimates by Edison Research of the number of votes likely to be cast there.
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