A cashier employs his phone's flashlight to assist customers in a restaurant devoid of electricity during a partial blackout in Kyiv on November 28, 2024, subsequent to Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. – AFP

On the rooftop of a 16-story residential apartment building in Ukraine's capital Kyiv, Valerii Pyndyk gestured towards several rows of solar panels. Pyndyk anticipates that this installation—one of the first by residents in Kyiv—will aid approximately 1,000 families residing in the building to endure what could be Ukraine's most arduous winter since the inception of Russia's invasion.

"The concept emerged when we experienced electricity outages in summer. Our housing association board comprehended that if we had blackouts in summer, then in winter, they would not be shorter but longer," explained Pyndyk, 49, who leads the association.

The previous two winters of the conflict were already demanding, but Russia has escalated its assaults on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, with at least 11 significant missile and drone strikes since March. Approximately half of Ukraine's generating capacity has been compromised, and distribution networks have also sustained damage.

In Kyiv, daily blackouts lasting eight hours are commonplace, prompting residents to schedule their days around power availability, including waiting in cafes for elevators to function if they reside near the top of high-rise buildings. Some residents and businesses have expedited the installation of new generating capacity to access energy independently of the central energy system.

"Overall in Ukraine, there is a consistent trend toward energy independence, beginning with small consumers and extending to businesses," stated Serhiy Kovalenko, CEO of Yasno, a prominent energy supplier. Analysts noted strategies such as increased electricity imports from Ukraine's Western neighbors, purchases of generators, and alternative energy sources including solar panels, batteries, and small gas turbine generators.

Yasno, which supplies electricity and gas to over 3.5 million consumers and up to 100,000 businesses, offers options that encompass solar panels, accumulating batteries, and inverters. "Demand is exceptionally high," Kovalenko informed Reuters. "This autumn, we installed up to eight megawatts; next year, we plan to install 30-35 megawatts." Eight megawatts is sufficient to power around a dozen enterprises, according to the company.

SECURITY CONCERNS: Russia has damaged or obliterated all of Ukraine's thermal and hydropower plants. In monetary terms, the total damage to Ukraine's energy sector surpasses $56 billion, including $16 billion in direct physical destruction and over $40 billion in indirect financial losses, as per estimates from the Kyiv School of Economics.

Ukraine increasingly relies on nuclear generation, making it challenging to balance the electricity on the grid, particularly during peak morning and evening hours when retail consumption surges. Ukraine has attempted to safeguard its energy system by constructing protective structures, establishing mobile drone-hunting groups, and collaborating with partners to introduce more air defense systems. However, it still lacks adequate resources to protect facilities nationwide.

Following each Russian strike, the government, energy companies, engineers, and Ukraine's partners scramble to recover and rebuild what they can. Winter weather can exacerbate the situation. "If we have a harsh winter, consumption will be significantly higher than last winter. Last winter, maximum consumption was 18 gigawatts (GW), so this year, we anticipate that if it is cold... it will reach 19 gigawatts," said Olena Lapenko, general manager for energy security at Kyiv-based think-tank, DIXI group.

Once the lights go out, many turn to generators for immediate relief. "We need this electricity... to bake bread, to make croissants, cakes... We took numerous steps to prepare – we acquired powerful generators," said Stanislav Zavertailo, co-owner of Honey confectioneries and Zavertailo pastry shops in Kyiv. As his team refueled an industrial generator at their production site, Zavertailo noted that electricity was escalating costs. "One kilowatt-hour is five to six times more expensive than the usual one."

Generators are more effective for small- and medium-sized enterprises and provide only a temporary solution, analysts noted. To assist larger businesses, the government agreed with Ukraine's central European neighbors to boost imports to 2.1 GW at any given time from Dec. 1. However, imports are also costly, according to Lapenko.

PUSH FOR CLEAN ENERGY: Numerous financial programs supported by Kyiv's Western allies have been initiated to transition Ukraine's energy mix to a cleaner and more sustainable model. Legislative changes were also implemented to streamline equipment purchases and imports. Solar panels have begun to appear on the roofs of private houses, residential buildings, schools, hospitals, and other public buildings.

Pyndyk mentioned that the cost of the installation on his building was approximately 950,000 hryvnias ($23,000), and the government and Kyiv municipality had covered about two-thirds of that amount. He and his residents plan to install more panels on other buildings next year. Official data indicated that about 1.5 GW of new solar generation has been installed. However, given Ukraine's needs and the extent of wartime damage to energy infrastructure, such changes are just the beginning.

"This issue is not merely a challenge for this winter. Coal generation is outdated, and we need to alter something," said Lapenko of DIXI group. "This is the outlook for three, four, or five years to replace what was destroyed and gradually replace that outdated generation."

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