As we race at breakneck speed into the second half of the season, even the top NFL teams have issues they must address before the playoffs. In the postseason, every error is amplified, and every big play becomes monumental. Here are five of the NFL’s most formidable contenders, and the one critical flaw that could derail each team’s journey to Super Bowl LIX. This list is not exhaustive – many other teams could claim the title – feel free to add your own picks and their vulnerabilities below.
Weakness: A shortage of explosive offensive playmakers. The Chiefs are akin to Bill Belichick’s finest New England teams – no matter the perceived weakness, they adapt and overcome. This resilience is why the Chiefs remain undefeated. However, their success masks a glaring lack of explosive plays, particularly in the passing game. This season, Patrick Mahomes has only four completions of 20 or more air yards on 14 attempts for 168 yards, three touchdowns, three interceptions, and a passer rating of 77.1. To put this in context, Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers leads the NFL with 15 such completions, and only two qualified quarterbacks – Jacoby Brissett of the New England Patriots and Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns – have fewer than Mahomes. Neither Brissett nor Watson are starters on their respective teams.
Mahomes has more to offer than Brissett and Watson, and the Chiefs’ run game, defense, and special teams are keeping them in the game. But there must be concern in Kansas City about the lack of playmakers who can unsettle opposing defenses when it matters most. If the Chiefs face a more explosive offense in the postseason, and Steve Spagnuolo’s defense can’t counter, what will the Chiefs’ response be?
Weakness: A pass rush that may not be sufficient. It’s tough to bet against the Lions after their remarkable comeback against the Houston Texans, overcoming a 23-7 halftime deficit and Jared Goff’s five interceptions. However, we’re focusing on the playoffs, where any flaw is magnified. For the Lions, it’s a pass rush that has notably weakened since elite edge-rusher Aidan Hutchinson suffered a broken tibia and fibula in Week 6. With Hutchinson, the Lions had 18 sacks. Without him, they’ve managed just nine.
The Lions’ pressure rate is slightly better without Hutchinson, but this is due to defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn increasing blitzes – from 31.6% to 38.9% of defensive snaps before the Texans game. While this strategy is effective, it makes the defense more vulnerable as there are fewer players to cover receivers. With fewer sacks from more pressures, it indicates defenders aren’t reaching the quarterback as often. Pressures are crucial, but sacks halt the play. The recent acquisition of edge defender Za’Darius Smith may mitigate the loss of Hutchinson, but if not, the defense could struggle against high-level passing games as the season progresses. Head coach Dan Campbell’s optimism is commendable, but it can’t tackle quarterbacks.
Weakness: Relying too heavily on Josh Allen. Buffalo’s Sean McDermott deserves consideration for coach of the year, as this was expected to be a rebuilding season. Instead, the Bills look formidable when everything clicks. A defense with new components and a revamped secondary has performed well, and the offense, led by Allen, poses a significant threat to any defense. However, throughout Allen’s tenure, which began in 2020 when he elevated his game to the highest level, the Bills have relied too much on their quarterback. This season is no exception. James Cook and Ray Davis are solid running backs, but Allen has been the team’s top rusher for years. Despite Allen’s prowess as a passer, he hasn’t had a top-tier receiver in a long time. This season, the trade for former Browns receiver Amari Cooper has helped, but first-round rookie Keon Coleman is still finding his footing, and the best receiver on the team is slot specialist Khalil Shakir.
This is a well-coached team on both sides of the ball, but relying too heavily on Allen has hindered the Bills’ Super Bowl aspirations in recent years – often at the hands of the Chiefs. While Allen could potentially have a stellar playoff run to secure a Lombardi Trophy, that’s a lot to expect, regardless of his talent.
Weakness: Is Russell Wilson a fleeting illusion? The one constant about Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin is his remarkable record of never having a losing season in his 18 years at the helm. However, Tomlin has had to navigate quarterback issues in recent seasons, especially since Ben Roethlisberger’s decline. The 2024 Steelers bypassed the draft to address their quarterback problem, trading for Justin Fields and signing Wilson after his release from the Denver Broncos. Fields was seen as a raw talent needing the right environment, while Wilson was perceived as a veteran whose best days were behind him. Tomlin started the season with Fields but switched to Wilson in Week 7.
Since Wilson became the starter, the Steelers have averaged 30.3 points and 382 yards per game, compared to 20.7 points and 298 yards with Fields. Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith seems to grasp what the Wilson offense requires – a dynamic run game with deep-ball shots off play-action. This approach worked for Wilson in Seattle and was lacking in Denver. This could propel Pittsburgh to new heights… but Wilson is also known to have inconsistent stretches. If he doesn’t maintain his composure, the Steelers could revert to relying on defense and special teams for wins.
Weakness: A defense in disarray. In 2023, the Ravens boasted the NFL’s best defense by various metrics. They led in FTN’s Defensive DVOA, a measure of opponent-adjusted efficiency. They allowed the fewest points (280) and tied for the lowest yards per play average (4.6). They conceded the fewest passing touchdowns (19) and had 15 interceptions. Only the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers had more total pressures than Baltimore’s 308. This was a dominant unit from top to bottom.
Now, without former defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, who left to coach the Seattle Seahawks, and with rookie DC Zach Orr taking his place, the Ravens rank 16th in Defensive DVOA. They’ve allowed the third-most points (253), 5.7 yards per play (tied for fourth-worst), and 22 passing touchdowns (the most in the league). They have just six interceptions. Last season, opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 77.9 against Baltimore’s defense, second only to the New York Jets. This season, they’ve allowed a passer rating of 102.0, sixth-worst. The Ravens remain a Super Bowl threat due to their potent offense, and Lamar Jackson could win his second consecutive MVP. However, at this rate, the offense will need to carry the defense for the remainder of the season.
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