A sluggish beginning is nothing new for Cincinnati. In six seasons under Zac Taylor, the Bengals have stumbled out of the gate with an 0-2 record five times. However, starting the season 0-3 is uncharted territory, and the odds are now heavily against them. Only four out of 162 teams that have started a season 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990. The expanded playoff format slightly improves their chances, but not significantly. On the bright side, the Bengals have shown vulnerabilities in all three games this season but were just a few plays away from a 3-0 start. The pessimistic view is that they have struggled to enhance their offense and, for the first time since Joe Burrow joined, the defense has hit rock bottom. Through three weeks, the Bengals have the 30th-ranked defense in the NFL by EPA per play, a measure of overall effectiveness. Adding to the concern are the underlying statistics. Cincinnati had a pass-rush win rate of just 9.8% against Washington on Monday night, the worst recorded in 10 years of data. Burrow and the offense offer hope. After a lackluster performance against the Patriots in week one, the offense has improved—Burrow has thrown five touchdowns and zero interceptions. If this trend continues, the Bengals could edge back into the wildcard race. They have a favorable schedule over the next four weeks, with games against the Panthers, Giants, Browns, and Ravens, which could help them inch closer to .500. However, unless they can boost their defensive line, they will be out of playoff contention before Thanksgiving.
Travis Kelce's slow start has sparked numerous theories. Is he too focused on his podcast or film career? Or is it simply that he's a 34-year-old tight end? Playing tight end is physically demanding, and the decline can be rapid. Last year, there were signs that his end is near. In 2023, he started slowly, picked up mid-season, and then dipped again towards the end of the regular season. Kelce remains a dynamic weapon and has an unteachable connection with Patrick Mahomes. As the Chiefs integrate new receivers and rely on younger tight end Noah Gray, Kelce's numbers will likely decline. But by the postseason, Mahomes will still look to Kelce in crucial moments, and he still has the ability to be a game-changer.
Dallas continues to find new ways to entertain, this time with a severe run-defense issue. Through three weeks, the Cowboys have the worst run-defense in the league, ranking 32nd in EPA per play. They've conceded more explosive runs and missed more tackles than any other team. The average depth of tackle is a staggering 6.18 yards, indicating defenders are being overpowered. Stopping the run requires talent, technique, and tenacity, all of which the Cowboys lack. Adjustments have not alleviated the problem, and the defense looks disorganized and sometimes amateurish. Finding a mid-season solution will be challenging.
Jacksonville's offense is in disarray, with head coach Doug Pederson considering an overhaul just three weeks into the season. In their last 10 quarters, the Jaguars have scored just 23 points and converted only 18% of their third downs. The offense lacks identity and is riddled with sloppy play. Trevor Lawrence, despite his talent, continues to make inexplicable decisions. Blame lies with the Jaguars' management for an underprepared roster and coaching staff, but Lawrence also bears responsibility. The schedule does not favor Jacksonville, and Pederson could be out of a job by October.
The Bears' season has been disappointing after being crowned offseason champions. The offense has sputtered, and the defense has not lived up to expectations. Caleb Williams, the young quarterback, has shown flashes of potential but has also made poor decisions and struggled with accuracy. The offensive line has been porous, forcing Williams to freelance. If the line improves, Williams could become more effective. While the early optimism has faded, the Bears should remain patient with Williams.
