RIYADH: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has revised its global oil demand growth forecast for 2024, reducing it to 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) from the previous estimate of 1.8 million bpd.
The total world oil demand is projected to hit 105.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2024 and 103.8 million bpd for the entire year of 2024.
OPEC also lowered its global demand growth outlook for 2025 to 1.4 million bpd. The total world oil demand is expected to reach 105.3 bpd in 2025.
"Growth is anticipated to be supported by robust air travel demand and strong road mobility, including diesel consumption and trucking, along with healthy industrial, construction, and agricultural activities in non-OECD countries," OPEC stated in its monthly report.
OPEC+ postponed its plan to increase output until April 2025, amid declining oil prices.
OPEC had maintained its 2024 outlook unchanged until August, a stance it initially adopted in July 2023.
The revision for this year is attributed to more pessimistic data received in the third quarter, while the projections for next year reflect the potential impact of US tariffs.
The 210,000 bpd reduction in the 2024 forecast marks the largest of the five downward adjustments OPEC has made in its monthly reports since August. In July, OPEC had predicted a rise in global demand by 2.25 million bpd.
"The majority of this revision is focused on the third quarter, considering recently obtained bearish data for the third quarter," OPEC noted in the report.
China, India, other Asian countries, the Middle East, and Africa contributed to the latest downgrade. OPEC now forecasts Chinese oil demand to increase by 430,000 bpd in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 760,000 bpd in July.
After decades of driving global oil consumption growth, China's crude oil imports are expected to peak as early as next year, as demand for transport fuels begins to decline for the world's largest crude oil buyer.
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