Registration begins in the Philippines on Tuesday for one of the world's largest midterm elections, featuring a potential bitter proxy battle between President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and his fiery predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.
The May 2025 election will serve as a gauge of Marcos' popularity and an opportunity to consolidate power and prepare a successor, a move the influential Duterte family is determined to thwart following a contentious falling out.
Philippine presidents are restricted to a single, six-year term. While 317 seats in Congress and thousands of regional and city positions are up for grabs among 18,000 posts, the focus is on 12 seats in the 24-seat Senate, a high-profile chamber known for its significant influence and typically filled with political heavyweights.
Speculation abounds that the unpredictable Duterte, 79, and two of his sons might contest the senatorial race to undermine Marcos. Duterte's office and that of his daughter, Vice-President Sara Duterte, did not respond promptly to requests for comment.
The midterms follow the collapse of an unbeatable alliance between the two families that secured a landslide victory for Marcos in 2022. Sara Duterte had been the frontrunner for president in polls but chose to become Marcos' running mate instead. However, their relationship has since soured due to policy disagreements, the reversal of Rodrigo Duterte's pro-China foreign policy, investigations into his controversial war on drugs, and other scandals involving his associates.
Sara Duterte resigned from the cabinet and recently faced a humiliating two-thirds cut in her office's budget by a Congress led by the president's cousin, after she refused to attend hearings and objected to scrutiny of her spending.
Senate seats could provide the Dutertes with a powerful platform in the Philippines' personality-driven politics to rally support, challenge Marcos' legislation, and initiate investigations into his government.
"All eyes will be on who among them would run... or all of them," said Ederson Tapia, professor of public administration at the University of Makati. "The Dutertes, despite the controversies surrounding VP Sara, remain a formidable force."
A Pulse Asia survey indicated that Sara Duterte's trust and approval ratings have dropped but remain higher than Marcos'. Marcos is strengthening his base by endorsing prominent local figures for the Senate, including three former movie actors, the daughter of the country's wealthiest man, and two of his presidential election rivals, among them global boxing legend Manny Pacquiao.
Rodrigo Duterte ranked between fourth and fifth in a recent Social Weather Stations survey for the senatorial race, with nine other spots held by administration candidates. Notably absent from his Senate slate is his sister Imee Marcos, who is seeking re-election but declined her brother's endorsement to avoid putting him in a difficult position.
Political science professor Jean Encinas-Franco of the University of the Philippines noted that success for President Marcos in the midterms could be crucial to his legacy. "If the majority of those he endorsed win in the Senate and the House, it ensures that his legislative agenda will proceed," she said. "It ensures that he will have enough influence to support someone in the 2028 presidential elections."
