On Monday, Russia evacuated civilians from parts of a second region adjacent to Ukraine, following increased military activity near the border by Kyiv. This comes just days after Ukraine's largest incursion into Russian territory since the start of the 2022 war. Ukrainian forces breached the Russian border last Tuesday, advancing into western parts of the Kursk region. This unexpected attack might be intended to gain leverage in potential ceasefire negotiations following the US election in November. By Sunday, Russia had stabilized the front in the Kursk region, although battles continued on Monday in a section of captured Russian territory, according to Russian war bloggers.
In the neighboring Belgorod region to the south, regional governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced evacuations had commenced in the Krasnaya Yaruga District due to 'enemy activity on the border'. The Tass state news agency reported that 11,000 people had been evacuated from the Krasnaya Yaruga district, with Russian state television broadcasting footage of volunteers assisting civilians and delivering supplies.
The Russian defense ministry stated that its troops had successfully repelled multiple attacks by Ukrainian forces in at least eight locations in the Kursk region. Intense battles involving aviation, artillery, drones, and ground forces, including reserves, were reported against Ukraine's 22nd, 61st, and 115th mechanized brigades, with Ukraine losing 32 tanks in the area. Russia has tightened security in the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions, while its ally Belarus has increased troop numbers at its border following alleged Ukrainian drone incursions.
Russian officials believe Ukraine's attacks on Russian territory aim to demonstrate to Western supporters that Kyiv can still conduct significant military operations and to gain negotiating leverage in potential ceasefire talks. Russia launched its attack on Ukraine in February 2022, now controlling 18% of Ukrainian territory. Despite numerical superiority, Russian forces have advanced along the 1,000-km front this year after Ukraine's 2023 counteroffensive failed to achieve major gains.
Ukraine broke its silence on the attacks on Saturday, with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stating that the incursion into Russian territory aimed to 'restore justice' and pressure Moscow's forces. A major fire broke out at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, currently under Russian control. The ease with which Ukraine penetrated the Kursk region has raised questions in Moscow, with Russian war bloggers noting Ukrainian forces' attempts to encircle Sudzha and ongoing major battles near Korenevo and Martynovka.
The situation on the western Belgorod region's borders is described as alarming, with Ukraine probing the border in several places. Since the August 6 incursion into Kursk, the Russian rouble has weakened by 6% against the US dollar. Gazprom announced it would send 39.6 million cubic meters of gas to Europe via Ukraine on Monday. Despite the United States stating it was not informed of the Ukrainian operation beforehand, there are indications in Moscow that the attack will provoke a response from Russia.
