In June, Russian crude oil production surpassed the quotas established by the Opec+ group. However, the energy ministry assured on Wednesday that it will adhere to the mandated output level in July. The ministry stated that the production level was evaluated by independent sources recognized under the Opec+ agreement, including international consultancies. Russia has submitted its plan for compensating overproduction to the Opec secretariat, and its oil output has decreased monthly since April.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia-led allies, collectively known as Opec+, have implemented substantial output reductions since late 2022. According to the Opec+ agreement, Russia's production quota was set at 8.979 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, including additional voluntary cuts by eight member groups. An industry source revealed to Reuters that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is President Vladimir Putin's liaison for Opec+ relations, had a conversation with Saudi officials last week expressing concerns over Russia's overproduction.
Opec reports that Russia's cumulative oil overproduction from January to June this year amounted to 480,000 bpd under the Opec+ deal, and Russia has committed to compensating most of this excess next year. Russia plans to offset 40,000 bpd of overproduction in October-November 2024 and 440,000 bpd in March-September 2025. Opec+ will convene an online joint ministerial monitoring committee meeting (JMMC) on August 1 to assess the market. Three sources informed Reuters last week that the committee is unlikely to propose changes to the group's output policy.
