Whatever South Africa are expecting from England, it’s not a surprise. Springboks head coach Rassie Erasmus revealed they selected the team three weeks ago during a training camp in Jersey. Nothing he observed in England's matches against New Zealand and Australia has altered his perspective. If anything, the two losses only reinforced his initial suspicions.
“When you lose two games, even if it’s by a point or a last-minute try, the pressure starts to build,” Erasmus noted. “I’ve been there. I know how quickly it can affect you. And when that happens, you usually fall back on what works for you.” This is why Erasmus believes England will revert to the same game plan they used in the World Cup semi-final last year. “We expect them to pressure us with their kicking game.” He refrained from naming Steve Borthwick’s team, unlike before the World Cup match, but confidently predicted that Borthwick would “definitely” pick Freddie Steward at full-back. Two hours later, Borthwick confirmed this prediction. England’s coach must feel like he’s playing poker with a mirror over his shoulder.
South Africa has made 12 changes to the team that beat Scotland, including the entire backline. The only players starting both games are prop Ox Nché, hooker Bongi Mbonambi, and lock Eben Etzebeth. England likely anticipated most of these changes given South Africa’s six-day turnaround, but there are still a couple of surprises. Erasmus has chosen Manie Libbock at fly-half, despite only allowing him to play the first half-hour of the semi-final, and recalled Wilco Louw at tighthead.
Erasmus has also opted for a five-three split on the bench, similar to the semi-final. “England is the only team without a six-day turnaround, and ours is during the England week,” Erasmus explained. “We need to handle their kicking game and rush defence, which will heavily impact our backs. That’s why we went with a 5-3 split. Hopefully, our forwards remain fresh as they didn’t all play the full 80 minutes.” By kick-off, Erasmus said the backline will have spent the last nine days specifically preparing for this match. “Last week, after helping the team prepare for Scotland, they focused on England and started analyzing them.” He is clearly still reflecting on the World Cup match, where England came within two points of victory. He even mentioned that the decision to pick Libbock was because “we like to give a guy a second chance, and it was against England, where we had to make the substitution in the 32nd minute.”
Erasmus sees the only real difference between this England team and the previous one in their defence. “They tackle, man. They might miss a few, but they make reads and sometimes misreads, but they tackle, you know? That’s a sign of a team that cares a lot.” England’s attack, centered around Marcus Smith, didn’t seem to concern him much, possibly because Smith’s former Harlequins coach Jerry Flannery is now with the Springboks. The irony is that Borthwick should have an inside line on the opposition, given he hired Erasmus’s former assistant Felix Jones last year, who then quit.
“It would be morally wrong for me to comment on,” Erasmus said, “but I can say I don’t think it would have been a personality clash. If it was, I wouldn’t talk about it, because I don’t know about it, but I don’t think one should point fingers and say ‘someone worked here, why aren’t they working there?’ Sometimes what’s needed in one team is not exactly what’s needed in another team.” Erasmus clearly admires Borthwick and has some sympathy for him. “I’ve been on that side. Two, three years ago, we lost three in a row, and the next game was against New Zealand, almost four in a row, you know? You tend to make emotional decisions, and we start listening to what the media say, trying to please them a little bit.
“But I think Steve is too smart for that. I don’t think he’s that kind of man. Hopefully, there’s an environment around him that allows him to believe in what he’s doing. And hopefully, he’ll get the win.” He paused. “Next weekend,” Erasmus laughed, not this one.
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