It seems that the era of swiftly sacking a manager after a string of losses and then flipping through the Filofax to call Big Sam, Big Mick, Massive Moyesy, or Huge Harry is drawing to a close. While managerial heritage will always have its place, clubs are increasingly turning to data analytics to identify the best fit for their strategic goals, player roster, and even brand identity. In the Premier League, job postings are non-existent, and applications are not accepted. Instead, the search for a new manager begins well before the paperwork for the current manager's P45 is initiated.
Succession planning is crucial: knowing the top three candidates to replace the manager, whether they are moving on to greater opportunities or tending to personal matters. Brighton serves as a prime example, swiftly replacing Graham Potter with Roberto De Zerbi and subsequently hiring Fabian Hürzeler when De Zerbi left, ensuring smooth transitions. Other clubs are keen to emulate this process.
"When you examine clubs like Brentford and Brighton, part of the reason they use data so effectively is not just because they were early adopters and have intelligent staff, but because the entire club is aligned to operate under this principle," explains Alex Stewart of the sports consultancy Analytics FC. "It's essential to ensure that all relevant stakeholders, typically the CEO, sporting director, and owner, are on the same page."
Analytics FC is among several companies offering guidance to clubs and associations during appointments. Hiring the wrong manager can be financially devastating: if the relationship doesn't work out, compensation for dismissal can reach millions. In the past, a lengthy CV was sufficient for a managerial role, leading to the same individuals frequently reappearing in various positions. Football has long treated itself as purely a sport, but it is a multi-billion-pound industry that needs to be managed accordingly. In the corporate world, most CEOs and CFOs are headhunted by experts, and football is gradually catching up.
Well-managed clubs have a clear philosophy stemming from the top, often dictated by a director of football or equivalent. This philosophy outlines what the club aims to achieve, helping to define the long-term process and ending the cycle of hiring managers with incompatible playing styles. Sporting directors or consultants create a matrix of requirements as they search for potential candidates, looking from Albania to Zambia for coaches who might fit the bill. Analyzing data on xG (expected goals) and xG against, for instance, can indicate whether a manager is extracting more from a team than their predecessor. Another critical factor is a coach's ability to influence a match through tactical changes or substitutions, though the range of stats that can influence recruitment is nearly limitless.
"We worked with a club that recognized their relatively low transfer budget, so they were interested in a coach with scouting knowledge of other regions, which might allow them to acquire players more affordably or bring valuable contacts," Stewart notes. "These aspects are all part of the assessment, and we incorporate them if necessary."
At the highest level, metrics are used to compare squad value with points earned. Clubs that invest the most in transfers and wages should top the league and seek coaches who outperform based on relevant data. While these concepts are not without flaws, they provide a good indication of a coach's achievements. It might surprise some that even with a Manchester City squad valued at around £1.2bn, Pep Guardiola consistently overachieves based on points accrued each season.
A manager cannot rely solely on stats. Man-management is another crucial aspect, and for this, a sporting director will consult former players and coaches who have worked with the candidate. It still requires significant legwork to determine who perfectly fits the criteria. The modern manager not only prepares a team for twice-weekly matches but also handles media commitments. A sporting director will scrutinize a manager's press interactions, assessing how they handle questions, whether they appear nervous or overthink responses, and the frequency of repeated words and cliches.
These qualities cannot be quantified on a spreadsheet. Statistics serve as a guide, and those in charge can use the numbers but must take responsibility if something goes wrong. This is not a video game; it's real life, and decisions have real consequences. However, more clubs are at least giving themselves the best chance of making the right choices.
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