The skyline of New Delhi was shrouded in thick smog on November 17, 2024, as reported by AFP.

The toxic haze that blankets the northern plains of India is not only suffocating its residents and causing millions of deaths but also hindering the nation's economic progress. New Delhi, India's capital, often ranks among the world's most polluted cities. Every winter, emissions from vehicles and factories, combined with farm fires from neighboring states, create a dystopian fog that envelops the city. This month's acrid smog contains over 50 times the World Health Organization's recommended limit of fine particulate matter—harmful microparticles known as PM2.5 pollutants that can cause cancer and enter the bloodstream through the lungs.

Experts warn that India's deteriorating air quality is devastating its economy, with one study estimating annual losses of $95 billion, equivalent to about three percent of the country's GDP. The actual economic toll could be even higher.

"The external costs are enormous, and it's impossible to assign a precise value to them," said Vibhuti Garg of the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Bhargav Krishna from the Delhi-based research collective Sustainable Futures Collaborative added, "The costs accumulate at every stage, from missing workdays to developing chronic illnesses, and from premature deaths to the impact on families."

Several studies have attempted to quantify the damage. A report by global consultancy firm Dalberg concluded that in 2019, air pollution cost Indian businesses $95 billion due to reduced productivity, work absences, and premature deaths. This amount is nearly three percent of India's budget and roughly twice its annual public health expenditure. The study also found that toxic air contributed to 18 percent of all deaths in India, resulting in the loss of 3.8 billion working days and $44 billion in costs.

Pollution has also crippled the consumer economy, leading to annual losses of $22 billion due to reduced footfall and direct health-related issues. Delhi, the epicenter of the crisis, loses up to six percent of its GDP annually to air pollution. Restaurateur Sandeep Anand Goyle described the smog as a "health and wealth hazard," noting that health-conscious people avoid going out, hurting businesses.

Tourism has also suffered, as the smog season coincides with the time when foreigners traditionally visit northern India. Rajiv Mehra of the Indian Association of Tour Operators said, "The smog is tarnishing India's image." Delhi faces an average of 275 days of unhealthy air annually, according to monitors. Government initiatives, criticized as half-hearted, have failed to adequately address the issue.

Academic research indicates that the detrimental impact on the Indian economy is mounting. A 2023 World Bank paper stated that air pollution's "micro-level" economic impacts translate to "macro-level effects" observed in year-to-year GDP changes. The paper estimates that India's GDP would have been 4.5 percent higher by the end of 2023 if the country had halved its pollution levels over the past 25 years. Another study in the Lancet health journal estimated an annual GDP deceleration of 1.36 percent due to lost output from premature deaths and morbidity.

Emergency measures, such as closing schools and banning construction to reduce traffic emissions, come with their own economic costs. Sanjeev Bansal, chairman of the Delhi unit of the Builders Association of India, said, "Stopping work for weeks every winter disrupts our schedules and leads to budget overruns."

If action is not taken, pollution's impact on the Indian economy is likely to worsen. With India's median age expected to rise to 32 by 2030, the Dalberg study predicts increased susceptibility to air pollution and higher mortality rates.

Source link:   https://www.khaleejtimes.com