A resident in Charleroi, Pennsylvania, US, on September 24, 2024, displayed a mobile phone showing a flier from a local social media account that read, "Foreigners & Haitians Out, There is no place in America for this filth!" — Reuters

Donald Trump is anticipated to mobilize various US government agencies to assist in deporting a record number of immigrants, continuing his first-term efforts to utilize all available resources and pressure so-called "sanctuary" jurisdictions into cooperation, according to six former Trump officials and allies. Trump declared victory in the 2024 presidential election, asserting that America had granted him an "unprecedented and powerful mandate." Supporters of Trump, including potential members of his second administration, expect the Republican president-elect to enlist the help of everyone from the US military to overseas diplomats to fulfill his campaign promise of mass deportations. This effort would involve collaboration with Republican-led states and the use of federal funding as leverage against uncooperative jurisdictions.

Trump's re-election campaign centered on a vast immigration crackdown, with a key promise to deport record numbers of immigrants. His running mate, JD Vance, estimated that this operation could remove one million people annually. Immigrant advocates caution that Trump's deportation plan would be costly, divisive, and inhumane, potentially leading to family separations and devastating communities. During his 2017-2021 presidency, Trump struggled to increase deportations. Government data shows that Biden deported more immigrants in fiscal year 2023 than any Trump year, when counting both immigration removals and faster "returns" to Mexico by US border officials.

However, a mass deportation operation targeting millions would require significantly more officers, detention beds, and immigration court judges. The American Immigration Council, an immigrant advocacy group, estimated the cost of deporting 13 million undocumented immigrants in the US at $968 billion over a little more than a decade. Tom Homan, a former acting director of US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) expected to join the new administration, stated in a late October interview that the scale of deportations would depend on available officers and detention space. "It all depends on what the budget is," he said.

While the incoming Trump administration could draw on experience from his first term, it may face resistance from ideologically opposed government employees, including those who screen migrants for asylum. The American Civil Liberties Union and immigrant advocacy groups have been preparing for potential court battles if Trump tests the limits of his legal authority again. Lee Gelernt, an ACLU attorney who led the fight against Trump's controversial family separation policy, noted that over 15 lawyers focused on immigration within the organization's national office have been preparing for a possible Trump return. "We definitely need to be coordinated and have more resources, because I think they will come in much more prepared," Gelernt said.

The State Department could be a focal point for more aggressive actions under Trump's second term, according to several Trump supporters. A critical factor will be whether other countries will accept their citizens, an issue Trump faced with limited success during his first term. The Trump administration also struggled at times to persuade other nations in the region, including Mexico, to take steps to halt migrants moving toward the US-Mexico border. Ken Cuccinelli, former acting deputy secretary of the US Department of Homeland Security under Trump, stated that the State Department was a "roadblock" for immigration enforcement and that aggressive appointees would be crucial.

Christopher Landau, a former US ambassador to Mexico from 2019-2021, expressed frustration with the reluctance of some US diplomats to address immigration enforcement. "Nobody really thought that was their problem," Landau said in an October panel discussion by the Centre for Immigration Studies, which favors restricting immigration. About half of ICE's 21,000 employees are part of its Homeland Security Investigations unit, focusing on transnational crime such as drug smuggling and child exploitation rather than immigration enforcement. Several Trump allies suggested that the unit would need to devote more time to immigration.

HSI has distanced itself from ICE's immigration work in recent years, citing that fear of deportation makes it harder for investigators to build trust in immigrant communities. Stephen Miller, the architect of Trump's first-term immigration agenda, proposed in 2023 that National Guard troops from cooperative states could be deployed to assist with deportations in resistant states, likely triggering legal battles. Trump plans to use a 1798 wartime statute known as the Alien Enemies Act to rapidly deport alleged gang members, an action that would almost certainly face legal challenges. The law has been used three times, according to the left-leaning Brennan Centre for Justice: the War of 1812, World War I, and World War II, when it was employed to justify internment camps for people of Japanese, German, and Italian descent.

The Brennan Center and others have urged Congress to repeal the law. "Many fear that a second Trump administration would seek to use this law to justify indefinite detention and remove people from the country swiftly and without judicial review," wrote Naureen Shah, the ACLU's deputy director of government affairs, in late October. George Fishman, a former DHS official under Trump, cautioned that the Trump administration would need to prove the immigrants were sent by a foreign government. "I worry a little about overpromising," Fishman said.

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