The contrasting visions of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on climate policy are set to shape the future of global warming, with the outcome of the US presidential race having profound implications for the planet.
Neither candidate has presented a comprehensive climate platform, despite the United States being the world's second-largest emitter of greenhouse gases. However, their stances are clear. Former President Trump has consistently dismissed climate change as a 'hoax' and vowed to dismantle the climate-friendly policies of the Biden-Harris administration if re-elected. A Trump victory could significantly hinder the green transition and jeopardize long-term warming targets, while also undermining global efforts to reduce fossil fuel reliance.
Even before taking office, a Trump win would weaken US influence at the COP29 UN climate summit, just six days after the election. Wealthy nations like the United States are crucial for bolstering financial support for vulnerable developing countries, a key focus of this year's talks.
During his presidency, Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement and has pledged to do so again if re-elected, despite Biden's restoration of US participation. The US committed to halving its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 2005 levels, achieving an 18 percent reduction by 2023, according to the Rhodium Group.
Leah Stokes, a political scientist at UC Santa Barbara, emphasizes the importance of staying the course, warning of a complete reversal under Trump. 'The outcome of the American election will have ramifications for the whole planet,' she told AFP.
Harris, who played a key role in the COP28 deal to phase out fossil fuels, is committed to continuing US international climate leadership, according to her campaign. As a senator, she co-sponsored a 'Green New Deal' resolution, calling for drastic emissions reductions, which Trump dubbed the 'Green New Scam.'
In 2019, Harris called for a fracking ban, but later adjusted her stance due to political realities in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. While she has made little mention of climate change in her campaign, she continues to receive broad support from environmental groups, encouraged by her track record, including her role as California's attorney general and her vote on the 'Inflation Reduction Act,' driving unprecedented green energy investment.
Trump has vowed to rescind unspent funds from the IRA and cancel Biden's moratorium on new LNG export permits, as well as end the 'electric vehicle mandate.' New EPA rules aimed at curbing carbon emissions from power plants also face potential repeal.
Fatima Ahmad of Boundary Stone expects litigation over efforts to repeal these regulations. She is heartened by state, local, and private sector initiatives continuing climate efforts, even during Trump's first term. However, the potential national impact remains significant, with a Trump victory potentially leading to an extra four billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions by 2030 compared to a Democratic president, roughly the combined annual emissions of the EU and Japan.
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