The United States exported a record 6.1 million metric tonnes of thermal coal - primarily used for power generation and industrial boilers - to Africa during the first eight months of 2024, according to ship-tracking data from Kpler. This figure represents an 83% increase compared to the same period in 2023, making the US Africa’s leading thermal coal supplier in 2024, with a record 64% share of total African thermal coal imports. Alongside 11.1 million tonnes shipped to Asia - the top US coal market - these exports to Africa pushed total US coal exports to the third highest level on record for the first eight months of the year. This sustained high level of coal exports contradicts US and global efforts to reduce coal use in power generation, given coal’s significantly higher emissions compared to other fossil fuels when burned for power. The continued high level of US coal exports could provoke backlash from international climate advocates, who expect the United States to lead efforts to curb coal sales and usage.

This year marks the second consecutive year that US coal exports have exceeded 22 million tonnes by September, positioning the country’s annual coal exports to rank among the second or third highest ever. The highest record of 39.1 million tonnes was set in 2018, according to Kpler data, and does not appear likely to be surpassed in 2024. India was the top market for US thermal coal this year, importing 7.3 million tonnes from January to August. Morocco and Egypt followed as the next largest markets, importing 3 million and 2.9 million tonnes respectively through August. China, The Netherlands, and Japan were the subsequent largest destinations for US coal this year.

African nations collectively imported 9.48 million tonnes of thermal coal from January to August, a 0.5% decrease from the same period in 2023, but still the third highest on record, highlighting Africa as a crucial market for coal exporters. Over the past two years, Africa’s coal imports have grown by 12%, making it the only major region besides Asia to show an increase in thermal coal imports since 2022. Imports into Europe, North America, and Oceania have all declined by at least 20% during this period. Morocco, Africa’s top coal importer, primarily uses coal for power generation, accounting for around 64% of its electricity production. Egypt, which lacks coal-fired power plants, uses thermal coal in cement production and other industrial processes requiring cheap heat. South Africa is Africa’s largest coal consumer but imports relatively little due to high local production. Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Zambia are other significant African coal consumers for industry and power, primarily served by truck from South Africa or local production.

North Africa’s Morocco and Egypt are the most viable options for seaborne coal exporters looking to expand market share in Africa. These countries are particularly attractive to US suppliers due to the relatively short journey across the Atlantic. A bulk vessel carrying coal from Baltimore - the main US coal export port - to Casablanca’s bulk terminal in Morocco takes just under 11 days, nearly a week shorter than the trip from South Africa. US exporters can also deliver coal to Morocco faster than sellers in Colombia and Russia, ensuring they remain a key supplier. Morocco imports roughly 750,000 tonnes of thermal coal monthly. The trip to Egypt from Baltimore adds an additional six days of sailing, representing a longer commitment for US exporters. Egypt’s average monthly import tonnage is around 400,000 tonnes so far in 2024, a 100,000-tonne increase from 2023, indicating a 30% growth in coal demand this year. In contrast, Morocco’s monthly coal demand is around 8% lower than in 2023, suggesting its total coal needs may have peaked.

For coal exporters aiming to maximize sales, Egypt represents a rare bright spot and potential gateway to other fast-growing North African economies in need of cheap fuels for power and industry. These growth trends may conflict with US ambitions to reduce global coal consumption. However, as long as international demand for coal persists, US exporters will remain well-positioned to meet it, particularly in nearby markets.