Two years, four months, and a lifetime ago, a Wales team not so very different from the one that will be on the field on Saturday beat the Springboks 13-12 in Bloemfontein. Many strong Welsh sides have attempted and failed to win in South Africa over the past 60 years. That team, led by Wayne Pivac and captained by Dan Biggar, was the first and only one to achieve this feat. They might have even won the series if not for the unfortunate events in the first Test at Loftus Versfeld the previous week, where they lost 32-29 after Damian Willemse kicked a penalty in the final minute.

Wales has since fallen significantly. Last autumn, they were leading Argentina 10-6 at halftime in the World Cup quarter-finals. They ended up losing 29-17 and haven't won a Test since, except for a match against the Barbarians. This marks 11 consecutive defeats. Many predict it will be 12 after their match against South Africa on Saturday. Some bookmakers have the Springboks at 100-1 on, reflecting the current dismal state of Welsh rugby.

Warren Gatland has appeared like a man on borrowed time since suggesting he would resign if it was in the best interest of Welsh rugby after their 52-20 loss to Australia. He argues that his team is as good as it can be given the current state of Welsh rugby. He believes the success of the national team has often masked the underlying issues in the national game. For much of the last decade, they were the fifth and most successful Welsh region, achieving victories despite the system, not because of it.

There is some truth to this. Since South Africa's clubs joined the URC, only one Welsh team has finished in the top half of the table, with the Ospreys coming in eighth last year. Financial instability has led to a player drain at all levels. Losing players like Ross Moriarty and Rhys Carré is concerning, especially given Wales' 25-cap rule, which Moriarty calls 'a rubbish rule'.

The most worrying aspect is losing young talent like Kane James. James, a 20-year-old back row from Haverfordwest, took a scholarship to Sedburgh and was signed by Exeter, who agreed to sponsor him through university on the condition he made himself available for England. He's not alone; Welsh players Gethin O'Callaghan and Kepu Tuipulotu are also in the England Under-20 squad.

Gatland is right to say 'we need to look at the pathways and the structures'. The union needs to provide the substance to the strategy they outlined in June, aiming to be 'consistently ranked' in the world's top five. So far, they've been silent on how they plan to achieve this. They seem to be recovering from recent scandals, including an independent report that found a previous regime allowed a 'sexist, misogynist, racist, and homophobic' culture to go unchallenged.

Gatland has climbed back into a car that's falling apart. The question remains whether he's the right man for the long haul, given his age and the current state of the team. His claim that there aren't better players available is questionable, considering at least seven players from the 2022 South Africa tour could be playing this weekend but haven't been included in his XV.

Gatland's best argument is weak. He says starting over with someone else would be a step backward, and it's unclear if that would lead to more success. Sacking him wouldn't fix the WRU. It's often said they can't afford to let him go due to contract buyouts, but if things continue as they are, they might not be able to afford to keep him.

Gatland is a good man and was a great coach. It's starting to feel like his last act will be to take the blame for the team's failures, forcing them to confront their current state.

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