In just four years, a quarter of musicians could face financial threats from AI-generated music, according to a new global study on AI's impact on the music industry. Over the next five years, music creators could lose up to €10 billion, with an annual loss of €4 billion expected by 2028 if generative AI continues to penetrate the market. A global economic study by the French-founded creators' rights advocacy organization, Confédération Internationale des Sociétés d'Auteurs et Compositeurs (CISAC), reveals that generative AI is likely to enrich tech companies while significantly jeopardizing the income of human creators. As human creators suffer, tech firms creating generative AI music are expected to gain the same €4 billion, as the market for non-human authored music expands to an annual value of €16 billion by 2028. This shift will likely be most evident on streaming platforms, where automated playlists will encourage consumers to listen to AI tracks instead of human-made music. A significant portion of this music will be background music played in public settings and through passive playlists. The issue will also be more pronounced in the audiovisual field, where the market for generative AI content is projected to grow to €48 billion by 2028, driven by entirely AI-generated video content and production teams using AI tools for directing and screenwriting assistance. Although some may view these tools as helpful additions to artists' toolboxes, artists are more likely to financially lose out to tech companies that can produce larger volumes of content at a lower cost through AI than by employing real musicians. Importantly, artists are already losing out as these tools are trained on works created by humans, almost entirely without their consent. Most current models use copyrighted works in their training without authorization. CISAC Director General Gadi Oron stated that the study highlights "the enormous value that copyright works bring to Gen AI companies." He added that the study's conclusions point to a fundamental flaw in the market, where creators' works are unfairly and unethically appropriated to boost the revenues of Gen AI providers, leaving the creators themselves out of this growth.
CISAC President Björn Ulvaeus commented: "For creators of all kinds, from songwriters to film directors, screenwriters to film composers, AI has the power to unlock new and exciting opportunities – but we must acknowledge that, if poorly regulated, generative AI also has the power to cause great harm to human creators, to their careers and livelihoods. Which of these two scenarios will be the outcome?" As the first study to estimate the economic impact of generative AI on creators of music and audiovisual productions at a global level, CISAC is urging policymakers to amend laws to protect the creative industries and the people working within them.
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