A UAE-based researcher, Dr. Kristian Alexander, predicts that the assassination attempt on Donald Trump will result in a "surge in sympathy votes" for the US Republican candidate. Alexander, a professor and senior fellow at the Rabdan Security and Defence Institute (RSDI) in Abu Dhabi, believes this could significantly influence the upcoming elections. "The assassination attempt has the potential to further galvanise Trump’s support base," he told Khaleej Times. "The incident will portray Trump as a survivor, enhancing his appeal as a resilient and determined leader. He will be seen as a martyr-like figure, and will be perceived as a victim of political violence, possibly leading to a surge in sympathy votes."
On Saturday, July 13, Donald Trump was shot at by a 20-year-old during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania. The bullet 'pierced the upper part' of Trump’s right ear, as confirmed in a post on his social media platform, Truth Social. The gunman, identified as Thomas Matthew Crooks, was immediately shot dead by secret service agents. Another attendee, a 50-year-old volunteer firefighter, was also killed in the attack while trying to protect his family.
Dr. Kristian noted that the incident presents a "delicate challenge" for US President Joe Biden. "While he must condemn the violence and offer support to Trump, he remains his political adversary," he said. "Biden’s strategy will likely involve presenting himself as a unifying figure, contrasting sharply with the divisive rhetoric associated with Trump." He also highlighted the dysfunctionality of the American political system, stating that polarisation has steadily increased, making bipartisan cooperation nearly impossible.
For American expats in the UAE, the incident was shocking. "In my 30-plus years, I've never encountered anything like this," said Aaron I., MD of Jack Taylor GCC. "In history classes, we learned about JFK getting shot and the attempt on Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, but nothing this close to taking out a presidential candidate in the last 40 years." Aaron believes this is the time for Americans to remain united, showing that violence is not the solution and won’t be tolerated.
Local experts suggest that the incident could have a profound impact on global financial markets. "In the short term, the stock market may experience increased volatility as investors react to the news," said Arun Leslie John, Chief Market, Century Financial. "Betting odds for Trump’s presidency have risen across the board. Financial markets are likely beginning to price in a potential Trump presidency, which could likely benefit infrastructure and defence companies as well as small-cap stocks, real estate stocks and energy stocks."
Dr. Kristian also pointed out that the case of Thomas Matthew Crooks highlights a significant challenge in threat detection: the invisible or quiet threat. "Unlike individuals who publicly broadcast their intentions or radical views, Crooks did not draw attention to himself in a way that would raise alarms," he said. The failed attempt on Trump's life also casts a harsh light on the effectiveness of security protocols for protecting political leaders. "The fact that the assassin could position himself with a rifle near the event site signals a significant breach in security," he added.
