California's political landscape is heavily tilted towards the Democratic Party, so much so that neither Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential candidate, nor her Republican opponent Donald Trump invest much effort in campaigning here. However, the battle for control of the US House of Representatives is a different story. According to a Reuters analysis, California is home to six of the 38 most competitive House races, with five of these seats currently held by Republicans. As Democrats aim to overturn the Republicans' narrow 220-212 House majority, California emerges as a crucial battleground, with contested districts extending from east of Fresno to south of Los Angeles.
In late September, Democratic former state lawmaker Rudy Salas attempted to sway about 50 people in a Corcoran backyard to support his bid to unseat Republican US Representative David Valadao. When pressed by an attendee about the high cost of groceries and why voters should continue backing Democrats, Salas pointed to the shortcomings of both parties, including President Joe Biden. 'Nationally, both parties are kind of to blame,' Salas said. 'What I tell people is we need sensible people at the table that are going to be like, 'Who is doing stuff to lower my monthly costs?''
Salas can afford to criticize Biden because California, unlike swing states such as North Carolina, Nevada, and Georgia, is not a significant factor in the presidential race. Neither Trump nor Harris have spent much time in the state, which last voted for a Republican for president in 1988. This is Salas' second attempt to challenge Valadao, who won by 3 percentage points in 2022, a year that favored Republicans who gained nine seats and a House majority due to voter discontent over high inflation.
Control of the House could be pivotal over the next two years, especially if Trump wins the November 5 election. While Republicans have a good chance of securing a Senate majority, a Republican House could give Trump a strong hold on Washington, whereas a Democratic majority could act as the party's final check on Trump if Harris loses. Five of the six competitive California seats are held by Republicans, making it possible for Democrats to take control of the House if they win all five without losing any other competitive races.
Valadao, a dairy farmer, maintains a distance from Trump, questioning his proposal for blanket tariffs on imports. 'If you've got a country that is subsidising their product to import against ours ... and they're making it harder for our farmers to compete, I think there's a spot where a tariff makes sense,' Valadao said. 'On everything across the board? I think that’s a mistake.' Valadao also noted that his district, the most racially diverse competitive House district, would not support Trump's recent promises for mass deportations.
California is home to five of the six most diverse competitive districts, with Hispanic, Black, and Asian voters outnumbering white voters. 'People are a lot more sympathetic to the immigrant situation because so many of us here are immigrants,' Valadao said. He is one of the 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump following the January 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol.
Long-time table grape harvesters, Becky Hernandez and Miguel Cortez Cazares, identify with Democrats but may vote for Valadao due to his focus on agriculture. 'We mostly go with the one who helps us more,' Hernandez said, seeing Valadao as an advocate for crucial water access. 'Honestly, I'm a traitor sometimes, and my kids say I should become a Republican. I say, 'Well, I don't think so.'
Salas and Valadao can tailor their messages away from the main themes of the Harris and Trump campaigns because neither presidential campaign is heavily advertising in California. In contrast, Pennsylvania has seen over $185 million in presidential TV ads in the last four months compared to only $390,000 in California. This creates an opportunity for congressional campaigns in California to stand out.
California House ads focus more on local issues like the state's gas tax. Republican ads link Democrats to Governor Gavin Newsom's progressive politics, while Democrats highlight abortion rights. However, the absence of presidential campaigns poses challenges, as Salas' campaign is being outspent by Republicans. Valadao and Republican groups have outspent Salas and Democratic groups on broadcast TV by at least $636,000.
Labor activist Dolores Huerta, who led the first major US farmworker strike alongside Cesar Chavez, is campaigning for Salas, concerned that Democrats are underestimating the importance of California races. 'There’s a lot at stake,' Huerta said. 'Getting money for these other House races is more difficult ... but you're not going to be able to govern unless you get the House and Senate to support your legislation.'
