In a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Thursday, Democrat Kamala Harris holds a 45% to 41% lead over Republican Donald Trump, reflecting a surge in voter enthusiasm and a dynamic shift in the race leading up to the November 5 election. This four-point lead among registered voters marks an expansion from Harris's previous one-point edge over Trump in a late July poll by the same organizations. The latest survey, completed within the last eight days and with a margin of error of two percentage points, indicates Harris gaining traction among women and Hispanic voters, leading Trump 49% to 36% among both groups. This represents a significant increase from her previous leads in July among these demographics.
Trump maintains his advantage among white voters and men, although his lead among voters without a college degree has diminished to seven points, down from 14 points in July. The poll underscores the volatile nature of the U.S. presidential race during the summer months. Following a poorly received debate performance against Trump, President Joe Biden, aged 81, terminated his struggling campaign on July 21, prompting widespread calls from fellow Democrats to withdraw his re-election bid. Since then, Harris has made significant strides against Trump in both national and key swing state polls.
The poll results from the seven closest states in the 2020 election show Trump leading Harris 45% to 43% among registered voters. Commenting on the poll, Republican strategist Matt Wolking noted that while challenging, the race against Harris is not beyond reach for Trump, emphasizing the need for a focused campaign strategy to retain potential supporters who were previously inclined towards Trump due to their disliking of Biden. Since accepting the Democratic nomination, Harris has embarked on a tour of critical battleground states, aiming to capitalize on her growing momentum.
The poll also reveals a shift in voter motivation, with 73% of Democratic registered voters expressing increased enthusiasm for voting in November since Harris joined the race. This contrasts with earlier sentiments where 61% of Biden supporters in a March poll cited stopping Trump as their primary motivation, whereas 52% of Harris supporters in the August poll indicated support for her candidacy over opposition to Trump. The enthusiasm among Trump voters remains robust, with 64% citing support for Trump as their primary motivation.
On key issues, voters favored Trump's approach to the economy by a margin of 45% to 36%, while Harris led significantly on abortion policy, 47% to 31%. This is particularly relevant given the 2022 conservative Supreme Court decision that overturned national abortion rights, a decision influenced by Trump's nomination of three conservative justices. The poll, conducted among 4,253 U.S. adults, including 3,562 registered voters, also included data on independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who had the support of six percent of voters at the time of his campaign suspension on August 23.
