The Indian rupee faced downward pressure on Wednesday, driven by robust demand for the U.S. dollar from public sector banks, primarily due to the monthly expiry of currency futures, along with importers' bids for dollar purchases to meet month-end obligations, according to traders.
By 10am IST, the rupee had weakened to 84.4425 against the U.S. dollar (equivalent to 23 UAE dirham), marking a 0.1 per cent decline from its previous close of 84.3275 (22.97 UAE dirham). The rupee's decline was also influenced by the overall weakness in most Asian currencies, with the Indonesian rupiah leading the losses with a 0.4 per cent drop.
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Public sector banks were observed actively bidding for dollars, likely in response to the expiry of the November month-end futures contract, as noted by a senior trader at a bank. Traders often engage in spot-future arbitrage trades to capitalize on the small discrepancies between the two rates when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervenes in the futures market. The daily fix was also quoting at a slight premium, indicating heightened demand to purchase dollars at the daily reference rate, which is used for the settlement of cash-settled derivatives on the rupee and is published by the RBI in the afternoon.
The pressure from dollar bids related to the futures expiry is anticipated to continue until at least shortly after noon local time, according to a second trader at a bank. Meanwhile, the dollar-rupee overnight swap rate increased, suggesting potential dollar inflows. Traders speculated that these inflows might be linked to Indian sovereign bonds in the JP Morgan emerging market bond index, where their weightage is expected to rise to 6 per cent this month.
In other developments, the dollar index remained relatively stable at 106.8 following the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which revealed that policymakers were divided on how much further interest rates might need to be cut. Investors are now awaiting the U.S. PCE inflation and jobless claims data, which are due later in the day.
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