Pollsters have been making a significant error in the final days of the 2024 presidential race by failing to account for a substantial shift in voter registration since the last election, which could potentially swing the vote in favor of former President Donald Trump on Tuesday, according to a seasoned GOP strategist.
Alex Castellanos, who has advised campaigns for Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney, told Fox News’ ‘Special Report’ that the polls, which indicate a very close race between Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, are overlooking a surge in Republican enthusiasm.
‘What I believe they’re missing is a significant shift in voter registration beneath all of this. Thirty-one states have voter registration by party. Thirty of them in the past four years have seen a shift towards Republicans,’ the veteran strategist stated on Sunday evening.
Castellanos suggested that the polls’ failure to recognize this boost was responsible for the lack of statistical variation in the polls leading up to Election Day. ‘I think the pollsters are getting this wrong. We’re all missing something, because they’re giving us the same poll over and over again. There isn’t even statistical variation,’ Castellanos remarked.
This comes as recent polling over the weekend showed six of the seven battleground states to be extremely close, within the margin of error, with Arizona being the only state showing a clear leader where Trump is up by four points.
Meanwhile, other prominent analysts, including polling data expert Nate Silver, have started questioning the polls in recent days, alleging that some pollsters might be ‘herding’ results to show a close race and avoid being an outlier.
Source link: https://nypost.com
