A satellite model is depicted on an image of Earth in this illustration captured on November 25, 2024. – Reuters file
The escalating number of satellites and space debris will render low Earth orbit unviable unless businesses and nations collaborate and exchange the data required to manage this most accessible space region, according to experts and industry insiders. A United Nations panel on space traffic management in late October concluded that immediate action was imperative and advocated for a comprehensive shared database of orbital objects, along with an international framework to monitor and manage them. Over 14,000 satellites, including approximately 3,500 inactive ones, encircle the globe in low Earth orbit, according to data from US-based Slingshot Aerospace. Additionally, there are around 120 million pieces of debris from launches, collisions, and wear-and-tear, of which only a few thousand are large enough to track.
"There's no time to waste on space traffic coordination. With so many objects being launched into space, we must do everything possible to ensure space safety, which means promoting the sharing of information between operators, whether public or private, to prevent collisions," stated panel co-chair Aarti Holla-Maini, director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs. Low Earth orbit must remain secure to avert costly disruptions to global communication, navigation, and scientific exploration technologies, she emphasized. However, there is no centralized system that all space-faring nations can utilize, and even persuading them to adopt such a system faces numerous obstacles. While some countries are willing to share data, others are concerned about compromising security, especially since satellites often serve dual-use purposes, including defense.
Meanwhile, the debris continues to accumulate. A Chinese rocket stage exploded in August, contributing thousands of debris fragments to low Earth orbit. In June, a defunct Russian satellite exploded, scattering thousands of shards that forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take shelter for an hour. Low Earth orbit, the most congested region with human-made objects, offers a balance between cost and proximity, making it a prime target for the rapidly expanding commercial space sector. It has also experienced a 17% increase in close approaches per satellite over the past year, according to Slingshot data. Projections indicate tens of thousands more satellites will enter orbit in the coming years. The potential financial risk of collisions is estimated to be $556 million over five years, based on a modeled scenario with a 3.13% annual collision probability and $111 million in yearly damages, according to Montreal-based NorthStar Earth & Space.
"We are at a critical juncture regarding implementing regulations and structures in space to monitor and manage the growing congestion. With Starlink launching thousands of satellites annually, China and others preparing to follow, we will soon exceed the bearing capacity of prime orbits," said NorthStar CEO Stewart Bain. Low Earth orbit is densely packed, with bands such as the one for satellite internet service Starlink from commercial space company SpaceX – at an altitude of 540–570 km (336-354 miles). As of Nov. 27, Starlink had 6,764 satellites in orbit, according to Jonathan's Space Report. SpaceX data showed Starlink satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision-avoidance maneuvers in the first half of 2024, about double the previous six months. The European Space Agency, which has fewer spacecraft than SpaceX, reported in 2021 that its maneuvers had increased to three or four times per craft compared to a historical average of one.
The 800–900 km band contains fewer satellites but has 3,114 objects – including operational and non-operational payloads, rocket bodies, and fragments – which make up 20% of the total mass of objects in low Earth orbit, posing significant collision risks, according to LeoLabs data. Expired satellites contribute to the clutter as they remain in orbit until they fall into and burn up in Earth's atmosphere years later or are flown to a "graveyard orbit" some 36,000 km away. Russia faced global criticism in November 2021 when it test-fired a missile at a defunct satellite in orbit, creating thousands of debris fragments. Russia invaded Ukraine three months after the test.
"The potential for conflicts between states has been on a steep rise in recent times. If these extend to space, it could complicate the outer space environment. We urgently need common global rules for coordination," said Anirudh Sharma, CEO of Bengaluru-based Digantara, which specializes in space situational awareness. The U.N.'s Holla-Maini, whose office serves as the secretariat for the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, stated that the October panel aimed to unite public- and private-sector experts to outline steps needed to begin work on coordination. It will present its findings at a committee meeting next year. Global cooperation is essential to developing enforceable rules akin to those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic, industry experts told Reuters. Such efforts would involve utilizing existing tools, such as databases, telescopes, radars, and other sensors to track objects while enhancing coverage, early detection, and data precision.
However, geopolitical tensions and reluctance to share data with nations deemed unfriendly, as well as commercial concerns over protecting proprietary information and competitive advantages, remain significant barriers. This leaves operators of orbital equipment relying on informal or semi-formal methods of avoiding collisions, such as drawing on data from the U.S. Space Force or groups like the Space Data Association. However, this can involve issues such as accountability and inconsistent data standards. "The top challenges are speed – as consensus-building takes time – and trust," Holla-Maini said. "Some countries simply can't communicate with others, but the U.N. can facilitate this process. Speed is our biggest enemy, but there's no alternative. It must be done."
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